Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue transmission in southeast Asia and Latin America: a statistical modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented disruption to society, which indirectly affects infectious disease dynamics. We aimed to assess the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue, a major expanding acute public health threat, in southeast Asia and Latin America.

Methods

We assembled data on monthly dengue incidence from WHO weekly reports, climatic data from ERA5, and population variables from WorldPop for 23 countries between January, 2014 and December, 2019 and fit a Bayesian regression model to explain and predict seasonal and multi-year dengue cycles. We compared model predictions with reported dengue data January to December, 2020, and assessed if deviations from projected incidence since March, 2020 are associated with specific public h

SUBMITTER: Chen Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8890758 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature