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Carbon peak and its mitigation implications for China in the post-pandemic era.

ABSTRACT: China's carbon peak greatly impacts global climate targets. Limited studies have comprehensively analyzed the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, changing emission network, and recent carbon intensity (CI) reduction on the carbon peak and the corresponding mitigation implications. Using a unique dataset at different levels, we project China's CO₂ emission by 2035 and analyze the time, volume, driver patterns, complex emission network, and policy implications of China's carbon peak in the post- pandemic era. We develop an ensemble time-series model with machine learning approaches as the projection benchmark, and show that China's carbon peak will be achieved by 2021-2026 with > 80% probability. Most Chinese cities and counties have not achieved carbon peaks response to the priority-peak policy and the current implementation of CI reduction should thus be strengthened. While there is a "trade off" between the application of carbon emission reduction technology and economic recovery in the post-pandemic era, a close cooperation of interprovincial CO₂ emission is also warranted.

SUBMITTER: Chen J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8891329 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Carbon peak and its mitigation implications for China in the post-pandemic era.

Chen Jiandong J Xu Chong C Gao Ming M Li Ding D

Scientific reports 20220302 1

China's carbon peak greatly impacts global climate targets. Limited studies have comprehensively analyzed the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, changing emission network, and recent carbon intensity (CI) reduction on the carbon peak and the corresponding mitigation implications. Using a unique dataset at different levels, we project China's CO<sub>2</sub> emission by 2035 and analyze the time, volume, driver patterns, complex emission network, and policy implications of China's carbon peak in ...[more]

PMID: 35236884

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Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose substantial challenges to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Exploring systematic SDG strategies is urgently needed to aid recovery from the pandemic and reinvigorate global SDG actions. Based on available data and comprehensive analysis of the literature, this paper highlights ongoing challenges facing the SDGs, identifies the effects of COVID-19 on SDG progress, and proposes a systematic framework for promoting the achievement of SDGs in the post-pandemic era. Progress towards attaining the SDGs was already lagging behind even before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inequitable distribution of food-energy-water resources and environmental crises clearly threaten SDG implementation. Evidently, there are gaps between the vision for SDG realization and actual capacity that constrain national efforts. The turbulent geopolitical environment, spatial inequities, and trade-offs limit the effectiveness of SDG implementation. The global public health crisis and socio-economic downturn under COVID-19 have further impeded progress toward attaining the SDGs. Not only has the pandemic delayed SDG advancement in general, but it has also amplified spatial imbalances in achieving progress, undermined connectivity, and accentuated anti-globalization sentiment under lockdowns and geopolitical conflicts. Nevertheless, positive developments in technology and improvement in environmental conditions have also occurred. In reflecting on the overall situation globally, it is recommended that post-pandemic SDG actions adopt a "Classification-Coordination-Collaboration" framework. Classification facilitates both identification of the current development status and the urgency of SDG achievement aligned with national conditions. Coordination promotes domestic/international and inter-departmental synergy for short-term recovery as well as long-term development. Cooperation is key to strengthening economic exchanges, promoting technological innovation, and building a global culture of sustainable development that is essential if the endeavor of achieving the SDGs is to be successful. Systematic actions are urgently needed to get the SDG process back on track.

Project description:At present, the COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing globally and the virus is constantly mutating. The herd immunity barrier established by past infections or vaccinations is gradually weakening and reinfections are occurring. To evaluate the pandemic fatigue and vaccine hesitancy among people who have recovered from COVID-19 in the post-pandemic era, we conducted an anonymous cross-sectional survey study in China from 4 July to 11 August 2023, nearly 6 months after the last large-scale nationwide infection. Basic sociodemographic characteristics, health-related factors (smoking, drinking, and chronic disease history), COVID-19 vaccination history, and self-reported long COVID were obtained as potential covariates. A series of logistic regression models were performed to examine the association between pandemic fatigue and vaccine hesitancy toward the next dose of COVID-19 vaccines via crude relative risks (cORs) and adjusted relative risks (aORs) with 95% CIs. According to our results, of the 2942 participants, 1242 (42.2%) were hesitant (unwilling or not sure) to receive the next dose of COVID-19 vaccines. The average score on the Pandemic Fatigue Scale was 21.67 ± 8.86, in which the scores of all items in the vaccine-hesitant group were significantly higher than those in the vaccine-accepting group. Additionally, the higher the pandemic fatigue level among people who have recovered from COVID-19, the more likely they were to be hesitant to receive the next dose of the COVID-19 vaccines (moderate: aOR = 2.94, 95% CI: 2.46-3.53; high: aOR = 6.88, 95% CI: 5.49-8.64). Overall, more than 40% of the recovered participants were unwilling or uncertain about the next vaccine dose, with varying degrees of pandemic fatigue. Pandemic fatigue is a potentially relevant factor for vaccine hesitancy and may hinder the translation of vaccination intention into behavior. Considering the ongoing reinfection situation, implementing a health education plan to reduce pandemic fatigue and prioritizing vaccination issues for people who have recovered from COVID-19 may be key to promoting the reduction of the COVID-19 disease burden and ensuring the health and well-being of the population.

Dataset Information

Carbon peak and its mitigation implications for China in the post-pandemic era.

Publications

Carbon peak and its mitigation implications for China in the post-pandemic era.

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