Evaluating the public health impact of partial and full tobacco flavour bans: A simulation study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Tobacco flavours such as menthol and fruits, which appeal to youth, remain unregulated in Western Pacific countries. Our goal was to evaluate the potential impact of tobacco flavour bans in Singapore, which has the region's highest flavoured cigarette market share.

Methods

Using an open-cohort microsimulation model, we estimated the impact of full ban and partial ban (excluding menthol and clove) scenarios versus the status quo (no ban) over a 50-year horizon. We used a Markov chain with four states (never, unflavoured, flavoured and ex-smokers), updating each individual's state across each year. We estimated between-state transition probabilities using Markov chain Monte Carlo, with prior distributions derived from national survey data.

Findings

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SUBMITTER: Zeng Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8891712 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature