Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Decreasing Number of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Cases and Epidemiological Trends in China.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Li YY
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8896483 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Decreasing Number of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Cases and Epidemiological Trends in China.
Li Yan Yan YY Ding Wen Hao WH Bai Yi Chun YC Wang Lei L Wang Yong Bin YB
Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES 20220201 2
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Project description:BACKGROUND:In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. METHODS:We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. RESULTS:We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403-540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18-25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63). CONCLUSION:The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation.
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Project description:BackgroundOverseas imported dengue fever is an important factor in local outbreaks of this disease in the mainland of China. To better prevent and control such local outbreaks, the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial distribution of overseas imported dengue fever cases in provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) where dengue fever is outbreak in the mainland of China were explored.MethodsUsing the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System (CNNDS), we identified overseas imported dengue fever cases in dengue fever outbreak areas in the mainland of China from 2005 to 2019 to draw the epidemic curve and population characteristic distribution of overseas imported cases in each PLAD. Based on spatial autocorrelation analysis of ArcGIS 10.5 and temporal-spatial scanning analysis of SaTScan 9.5, we analyzed the temporal-spatial distribution of overseas imported dengue fever in dengue fever outbreak areas in the mainland of China.ResultsA total of 11,407 imported cases, mainly from Southeast Asia, were recorded from 2005 to 2019 in these 13 PLADs. Of which 62.1% were imported into Yunnan and Guangdong Provinces. Among the imported cases, there were more males than females, mainly from the 21-50 age group. The hot spots were concentrated in parts of Yunnan, Guangdong and Fujian Provinces. We found the cluster of infected areas were expanding northward.ConclusionsBased on the analysis of overseas imported dengue cases in 13 PLADs of the mainland of China from 2005 to 2019, we obtained the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of imported dengue cases. Border controls need to pay attention to key population sectors, such as 21-50 years old men and education of key populations on dengue prevention. There is a need to improve the awareness of the prevention and control of imported cases in border areas. At the same time, northern regions cannot relax their vigilance.
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Project description:We compare several popular methods of estimating the basic reproduction number, R0, focusing on the early stages of an epidemic, and assuming weekly reports of new infecteds. We study the situation when data is generated by one of three standard epidemiological compartmental models: SIR, SEIR, and SEAIR; and examine the sensitivity of the estimators to the model structure. As some methods are developed assuming specific epidemiological models, our work adds a study of their performance in both a well-specified (data generating model and method model are the same) and miss-specified (data generating model and method model differ) settings. We also study R0 estimation using Canadian COVID-19 case report data. In this study we focus on examples of influenza and COVID-19, though the general approach is easily extendable to other scenarios. Our simulation study reveals that some estimation methods tend to work better than others, however, no singular best method was clearly detected. In the discussion, we provide recommendations for practitioners based on our results.
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Project description:Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic broke out in Wuhan, China, and it spread rapidly. Since January 23, 2020, China has launched a series of unusual and strict measures, including the lockdown of Wuhan city to contain this highly contagious disease. We collected the epidemiological data to analyze the trend of this epidemic in China. Methods: We closely tracked the Chinese and global official websites to collect the epidemiological information about COVID-19. The number of total and daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China was presented to illustrate the trend of this epidemic. Results: On January 23, 2020, 835 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in China. On February 6, 2020, there were 31,211 cases. By February 20, 2020, the number reached as high as 75,993. Most cases were distributed in and around Wuhan, Hubei province. Since January 23, 2020, the number of daily new cases in China except Hubei province reached a peak of 890 on the eleventh day and then it declined to a low level of 34 within two full-length incubation periods (28 days), and the number of daily new cases in Hubei also started to decrease on the twelfth day, from 3,156 on February 4, 2020 to 955 on February 15, 2020. Conclusion: The COVID-19 epidemic has been primarily contained in China. The battle against this epidemic in China has provided valuable experiences for the rest of the world. Strict measures need to be taken as earlier as possible to prevent its spread.
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Project description:Extensively Drug-Resistant (XDR) Tuberculosis (TB) has posed a great threat to global health and finance systems, especially for developing countries with high TB and Multidrug-Resistant (MDR) TB burden.We retrospectively analyzed HIV-uninfected TB case confirmed and treated in Shandong Provincial Chest Hospital (SPCH) between January 2008 and December 2015. Unique characteristics of XDR-TB were identified; its longitudinal changes and survival were analyzed.Between January 2008 and December 2015, a total of 144 cases were confirmed to be XDR-TB (2.5% of 5663 culture-confirmed TB cases; 27.9% of 516 MDR-TB cases). The proportion of XDR TB cases among MDR-TB cases has increased from 26.5% in 2008 to 44.5% in 2014 (Chi-Square test for trends: P < 0.01). Among the 144 XDR-TB cases, 21 patients (14.6%) had treatment success, 123 (85.1%) had poor treatment outcomes. Mortality was higher among XDR-TB cases than among MDR TB cases (8.3% vs. 3.8%, P = 0.033) and drug-susceptible TB cases (8.3% vs. 2.1%, P < 0.01).XDR-TB cases comprise a substantial and increasing fraction of MDR-TB cases, causing poor treatment outcomes and high mortalities. Early drug susceptibility testing, adequate TB treatment and efficient infection control must be in place in future TB control strategies.
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Project description:BackgroundGastric cancer (GC) is a serious threat to human health. The clinical GC characteristics in China may be impacted by changes in people's lifestyles and the promotion of early GC (EGC) screening. The present study aims to evaluate the recent trends of GC characteristics in South China and search for hazardous factors limiting the survival time of GC patients.MethodsData on GC patients that were hospitalized in the Department of Digestive Center, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, from 1994 to 2019 were collected and divided into two categories according to the time when the EGC screening began in China: the PRE group (previous 13 years, 1994-2006) and the PAS group (past 13 years, 2007-2019).ResultsWe found that, although the 5-year survival rate increased in the PAS group compared with the PRE group (P < 0.0001), patients with age ≥60 years or Borrmann type IV still had a worse prognosis. In the PAS group, the larger percentages of elderly patients and patients with Borrmann type IV in the lymphatic metastases (N1) group (41.0% vs. 51.1%, P = 0.0014) and stage IV subgroup (20.7% vs. 32.2%, P = 0.016), respectively, when compared with the PRE group, may have contributed to the poor outcome of GC. By comparing the odds ratio (OR) of 5-year overall survival (OS) in the two 13-year periods, female sex and T2 turned into risk factors because of a greater proportion of Borrmann type IV or elderly patients in the PAS group (OR = 0.983, 95% CI = 0.723-1.336 vs. OR = 1.277, 95% CI = 1.028-1.586 and OR = 1.545, 95% CI = 0.499-4.775 vs. OR = 2.227, 95% CI = 1.124-4.271, respectively).ConclusionsDespite the GC epidemiology changes, the overall prognosis of GC patients has improved in South China. However, old age and Borrmann type IV are still the major restrictions affecting the survival of GC patients, a situation which calls for additional attention.
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Project description:BackgroundIn 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia.MethodsWe used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015.ResultsPodoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.
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Project description:BackgroundThe Northern Territory (NT) of Australia has a mix of climates, sparsely distributed population and a large proportion of the populace are Indigenous Australians, and influenza is known to have a disproportionate impact upon this group. Understanding the epidemiology of influenza in this region would inform public health strategies.ObjectivesTo assess if there are consistent patterns in characteristics of influenza outbreaks in the NT.MethodsLaboratory confirmed influenza cases in the NT are notified to the NT Centre for Disease Control. We conducted analyses on notified cases from 2007-2016 to determine incidence rates (by age group, Indigenous status and area), seasonality of cases and spatial distribution of influenza types. Notified cases were linked to laboratory datasets to update information on influenza type or subtype RESULTS: The disparity in Indigenous and non-Indigenous notification rates varied by age group, with rate ratios for Indigenous versus non-Indigenous ranging from 1.58 (95% CI:1.39, 1.80) for ages 15-24 to 5.56 (95% CI: 4.71, 6.57) for ages 55-64. The disparity between Indigenous and non-Indigenous notification rates appeared higher in the Central Australia region. Indigenous versus non-Indigenous hospitalisation and mortality rate ratios were 6.51 (95% CI: 5.91, 7.18) and 5.46 (95% CI: 2.40, 12.71) respectively. Inter-seasonal peaks during February and March occurred in 2011, 2013 and 2014, and were due to influenza activity in the tropical north of the NT.ConclusionsOur results highlight the importance of influenza vaccination across all age groups for Indigenous Australians. An early vaccination campaign targeted against outbreaks in February-March would be best focused on the tropical north.
| S-EPMC7431647 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesSince the first novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient in Korea was diagnosed on January 20, 2020, 30 patients were diagnosed until February 17, 2020. However, 5,298 additional patients were confirmed until March 4, 2020. Therefore, our objective was to estimate the reproduction number (R) and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures.MethodsA COVID-19 transmission model (SEIHR) was established to suit the Korean outbreak. The number of daily confirmed cases in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province (NGP), the main area of outbreak, was used. The first patient' symptom onset date in the Daegu/NGP outbreak was assumed as January 22, 2020. The R according to the start date of the effect of preventive measures was estimated.ResultsThe estimated R in Hubei Province, China, was 4.0281, whereas the estimated initial R in Korea was 0.555, but later in Daegu/NGP, the value was between 3.472 and 3.543. When the transmission period decreases from 4-day to 2-day, the outbreak ends early, but the peak of the epidemic increases, and the total number of patients does not change greatly. It was found that, if transmission rate decreases, the outbreak ends early, and the size of the peak and the total number of patients also decreases.ConclusionsTo end the COVID-19 epidemic, efforts to reduce the spread of the virus, such as social distancing and wearing masks, are absolutely crucial with the participation of the public, along with the policy of reducing the transmission period by finding and isolating patients as quickly as possible through the efforts of the quarantine authorities.
| S-EPMC7285447 | biostudies-literature