Unraveling forced responses of extreme El Nino variability over the Holocene.

ABSTRACT: Uncertainty surrounding the future response of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability to anthropogenic warming necessitates the study of past ENSO sensitivity to substantial climate forcings over geological history. Here, we focus on the Holocene epoch and show that ENSO amplitude and frequency intensified over this period, driven by an increase in extreme El Niño events. Our study combines new climate model simulations, advances in coral proxy system modeling, and coral proxy data from the central tropical Pacific. Although the model diverges from the observed coral data regarding the exact magnitude of change, both indicate that modern ENSO variance eclipsed paleo-estimates over the Holocene, albeit against the backdrop of wide-ranging natural variability. Toward further constra

SUBMITTER: Lawman AE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8896782 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature