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The Role of the Natural Course in Causal Analysis.

ABSTRACT: The average causal effect compares counterfactual outcomes if everyone had been exposed versus if everyone had been unexposed, which can be an unrealistic contrast. Alternatively, we can target effects that compare counterfactual outcomes against the factual outcomes observed in the sample (i.e., we can compare against the natural course). Here, we demonstrate how the natural course can be estimated and used in causal analyses for model validation and effect estimation. Our example is an analysis assessing the impact of taking aspirin on pregnancy, 26 weeks after randomization, in the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction trial (United States, 2006-2012). To validate our models, we estimated the natural course using g-computation and then compared that against the observed incidence of pregnancy. We observed good agreement between the observed and model-based natural courses. We then estimated an effect that compared the natural course against the scenario in which participants assigned to aspirin always complied. If participants had always complied, there would have been 5.0 (95% confidence interval: 2.2, 7.8) more pregnancies per 100 women than was observed. It is good practice to estimate the natural course for model validation when using parametric models, but whether one should estimate a natural course contrast depends on the underlying research questions.

SUBMITTER: Rudolph JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8897990 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Role of the Natural Course in Causal Analysis.

Rudolph Jacqueline E JE Cartus Abigail A Bodnar Lisa M LM Schisterman Enrique F EF Naimi Ashley I AI

American journal of epidemiology 20220101 2

The average causal effect compares counterfactual outcomes if everyone had been exposed versus if everyone had been unexposed, which can be an unrealistic contrast. Alternatively, we can target effects that compare counterfactual outcomes against the factual outcomes observed in the sample (i.e., we can compare against the natural course). Here, we demonstrate how the natural course can be estimated and used in causal analyses for model validation and effect estimation. Our example is an analysi ...[more]

PMID: 34643230

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Project description:IntroductionPontocerebellar hypoplasia Type 2 (PCH2) is a rare autosomal recessive condition, defined on MRI by a small cerebellum and ventral pons. Clinical features are severe developmental delay, microcephaly and dyskinesia.Ninety percent carry a p.A307S mutation in the TSEN54-gene. Our aim was to describe the natural course including neurological and developmental features and other aspects of care in a homogeneous group of PCH2 patients all carrying the p.A307S mutation.Patients and methodsPatients were recruited via the German patients' organizations. Inclusion criteria were imaging findings of PCH2 and a p.A307S mutation. Data were collected using medical reports and patient questionnaires discussed in a standardized telephone interview.ResultsThirty-three patients were included. When considering survival until age 11 years, 53% of children had died Weight, length and head circumference, mostly in the normal range at birth, became abnormal, especially head circumference (-5.58 SD at age 5 yrs). Neurologic symptoms: Choreathetosis was present in 88% (62% with pyramidal signs), 12% had pure spasticity. Epileptic seizures were manifest in 82%, status epilepticus in 39%. Non-epileptic dystonic attacks occurred in 33%. General symptoms: feeding difficulties were recorded in 100%, sleep disorder in 96%, apneas in 67% and recurrent infections in 52%; gastroesophageal reflux disease was diagnosed in 73%, 67% got percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy and 36% a Nissen-fundoplication. Neurodevelopmental data: All children made progress, but on a low level: such as fixing and following with the eyes was seen in 76%, attempting to grasp objects (76%), moderate head control (73%), social smile (70%), rolling from prone to supine (58%), and sitting without support (9%). Ten percent lost achieved abilities on follow-up. The presence of prenatal symptoms did not correlate with outcome.ConclusionPhenotype of this genetically homogeneous group of PCH2 children was severe with reduced survival, but compatible with some developmental progress. Our data support the hypothesis of an early onset degeneration which thereafter stabilizes.

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The Role of the Natural Course in Causal Analysis.

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The Role of the Natural Course in Causal Analysis.

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