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News shocks at the local level: Evidence from a conditional Covid-19 containment measure.

ABSTRACT: To reduce the spread of Covid-19 whilst limiting the economic costs of containment policies, governments have introduced geographically-flexible conditional restrictions - measures targeting sub-national areas whose severity depends on the virus's local incidence rate. I analyze whether conditional measures impact transmission rates via a news-shock effect - that is, by incentivizing indirect actions in anticipation of the policies being carried out. Exploiting a natural experiment from Romania in a regression-discontinuity framework, I provide early empirical evidence in this sense: I find that the Covid-19 incidence rate fell significantly in targeted constituencies following the announcement of a conditional containment measure, but prior to the policy being implemented. My results add to a broader literature on news-driven fluctuations, wherein expectations of future policies can impact immediate behaviors. I conclude by discussing an important avenue for future research.

SUBMITTER: Savu A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8900875 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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News shocks at the local level: Evidence from a conditional Covid-19 containment measure.

Savu Alexandru A

Economics letters 20220307

To reduce the spread of Covid-19 whilst limiting the economic costs of containment policies, governments have introduced geographically-flexible conditional restrictions - measures targeting sub-national areas whose severity depends on the virus's local incidence rate. I analyze whether conditional measures impact transmission rates via a <i>news-shock</i> effect - that is, by incentivizing indirect actions in anticipation of the policies being carried out. Exploiting a natural experiment from R ...[more]

PMID: 35283544

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Project description:Since the appearance of the first case of COVID-19 in Morocco on March, 02, 2020, the cumulative number of reported infectious cases continues to increase and, up to date, the peak-time of infection is not reached yet. In this study, we propose a Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious deterministic model to evaluate the impact of compulsory containment imposed in Morocco on March, 21 on the spread of COVID-19 epidemic across the country. The model takes account of the unconfined individuals that continue to work or to leave their home for urgent needs and the existence of infectious asymptomatic and unreported individuals within susceptible population. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the peak-size, peak-time, final size and epidemic duration according to different rates of containment. Advanced knowledge of these details will be of great interest to establish an optimal plan-of-action to control or eradicate the epidemic. Indeed, mitigating and delaying the epidemic peak allow the official health authorities to anticipate and control the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, prediction of the epidemic duration can help the government to predict the end time of containment to avoid consequent social-economic damages as well. Using our model, the basic reproduction number R 0 is estimated to be 2.9949, with CI(2.6729-3.1485), reflecting a high speed of spread of the epidemic. The model shows that the compulsory containment can be efficient if more than 73% of population are confined. In the absence of other efficient measure of control, even with 90% of containment, the end-time is estimated to happen on July, 4, 2020 with 7558 final cumulative cases. Furthermore, a threshold value of containment rate, below which the epidemic duration is postponed, has been determined. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is performed and showed that the COVID-19 dynamics strongly depends on the asymptomatic duration as well as the contact and containment rates. Our previsions can help the government to adjust its plan-of-action to fight the disease and to face the social-economic shock induced by the containment.

Project description:Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. Conclusions: Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.

Dataset Information

News shocks at the local level: Evidence from a conditional Covid-19 containment measure.

Publications

News shocks at the local level: Evidence from a conditional Covid-19 containment measure.

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