Dataset Information

Potential seismic precursors and surficial dynamics of a deadly Himalayan disaster: an early warning approach.

ABSTRACT: On 7 February 2021, Chamoli district (Uttarakhand, India) was devastated by a deadly rock-ice avalanche that led to a large causality of more than 200 people and a huge economic loss. We found noteworthy sequence of precursory signals of main failure/detachment preceded by a dynamic nucleation phase. The rock-ice avalanche appears to have been initiated by seismic precursors which were continuously active for 2:30 h prior to main detachment. The seismic amplitude, frequency characteristics and signal-to-noise ratio variation of detected tremors indicate static to dynamic changes in nucleation phase located at the source of detached wedge. The characteristics of seismic data distinguished debris flow and hitting obstacles from other seismic sources and allowed the estimations of debris flow speed. We analyzed and verified the seismic signals with field evidences to estimate the associated impacts and velocity of dynamic flow. The proximal high-quality seismic data allowed us to reconstruct the complete chronological sequence and evaluate impacts since the initiation of nucleation phase to its advancement. Furthermore, we suggest that real-time seismic monitoring with existing network and future deployment of integrated dense network can be used for forecasting of flow events and hazard mitigation in the downstream.

SUBMITTER: Tiwari A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8904521 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential seismic precursors and surficial dynamics of a deadly Himalayan disaster: an early warning approach.

Tiwari Anil A Sain Kalachand K Kumar Amit A Tiwari Jyoti J Paul Ajay A Kumar Naresh N Haldar Chinmay C Kumar Sushil S Pandey Chhavi P CP

Scientific reports 20220308 1

On 7 February 2021, Chamoli district (Uttarakhand, India) was devastated by a deadly rock-ice avalanche that led to a large causality of more than 200 people and a huge economic loss. We found noteworthy sequence of precursory signals of main failure/detachment preceded by a dynamic nucleation phase. The rock-ice avalanche appears to have been initiated by seismic precursors which were continuously active for 2:30 h prior to main detachment. The seismic amplitude, frequency characteristics and s ...[more]

PMID: 35260624

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Project description:BackgroundMalaria continues to pose a significant health threat. Rapid identification of malaria infections and the deployment of active surveillance tools are crucial for achieving malaria elimination in regions where malaria is endemic, such as certain areas of Thailand. In this study, an anomaly detection system is introduced as an early warning mechanism for potential malaria outbreaks in countries like Thailand.MethodsUnsupervised clustering-based, and time series-based anomaly detection algorithms are developed and compared to identify abnormal malaria activity in Thailand. Additionally, a user interface tailored for anomaly detection is designed, enabling the Thai malaria surveillance team to utilize these algorithms and visualize regions exhibiting unusual malaria patterns.ResultsNine distinct anomaly detection algorithms we developed. Their efficacy in pinpointing verified outbreaks was assessed using malaria case data from Thailand spanning 2012 to 2022. The historical average threshold-based anomaly detection method triggered three times fewer alerts, while correctly identifying the same number of verified outbreaks when compared to the current method used in Thailand. A limitation of this analysis is the small number of verified outbreaks; further consultation with the Division of Vector Borne Disease could help identify more verified outbreaks. The developed dashboard, designed specifically for anomaly detection, allows disease surveillance professionals to easily identify and visualize unusual malaria activity at a provincial level across Thailand.ConclusionAn enhanced early warning system is proposed to bolster malaria elimination efforts for countries with a similar malaria profile to Thailand. The developed anomaly detection algorithms, after thorough comparison, have been optimized for integration with the current malaria surveillance infrastructure. An anomaly detection dashboard for Thailand is built and supports early detection of abnormal malaria activity. In summary, the proposed early warning system enhances the identification process for provinces at risk of outbreaks and offers easy integration with Thailand's established malaria surveillance framework.

Dataset Information

Potential seismic precursors and surficial dynamics of a deadly Himalayan disaster: an early warning approach.

Publications

Potential seismic precursors and surficial dynamics of a deadly Himalayan disaster: an early warning approach.

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