Dataset Information

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) Prediction Model for Osteoradionecrosis of the Mandible in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer After Radiation Therapy: Large-Scale Observational Cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) of the mandible represents a severe, debilitating complication of radiation therapy (RT) for head and neck cancer (HNC). At present, no normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for risk of ORN exist. The aim of this study was to develop a multivariable clinical/dose-based NTCP model for the prediction of ORN any grade (ORN_I-IV) and grade IV (ORN_IV) after RT (±chemotherapy) in patients with HNC.

Methods and materials

Included patients with HNC were treated with (chemo-)RT between 2005 and 2015. Mandible bone radiation dose-volume parameters and clinical variables (ie, age, sex, tumor site, pre-RT dental extractions, chemotherapy history, postoperative RT, and smoking status) were considered as potential predictors. The patient cohort was randomly divided into a training (70%) and independent test (30%) cohort. Bootstrapped forward variable selection was performed in the training cohort to select the predictors for the NTCP models. Final NTCP model(s) were validated on the holdback test subset.

Results

Of 1259 included patients with HNC, 13.7% (n = 173 patients) developed any grade ORN (ORN_I-IV primary endpoint) and 5% (n = 65) ORN_IV (secondary endpoint). All dose and volume parameters of the mandible bone were significantly associated with the development of ORN in univariable models. Multivariable analyses identified D_30% and pre-RT dental extraction as independent predictors for both ORN_I-IV and ORN_IV best-performing NTCP models with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 (AUC_validation = 0.75 [0.69-0.82]) and 0.81 (AUC_validation = 0.82 [0.74-0.89]), respectively.

Conclusions

This study presented NTCP models based on mandible bone D_30% and pre-RT dental extraction that predict ORN_I-IV and ORN_IV (ie, needing invasive surgical intervention) after HNC RT. Our results suggest that less than 30% of the mandible should receive a dose of 35 Gy or more for an ORN_I-IV risk lower than 5%. These NTCP models can improve ORN prevention and management by identifying patients at risk of ORN.

SUBMITTER: van Dijk LV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8906058 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) Prediction Model for Osteoradionecrosis of the Mandible in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer After Radiation Therapy: Large-Scale Observational Cohort.

van Dijk Lisanne V LV Abusaif Abdelrahman A AA Rigert Jillian J Naser Mohamed A MA Hutcheson Katherine A KA Lai Stephen Y SY Fuller Clifton D CD Mohamed Abdallah S R ASR

International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics 20210610 2

<h4>Purpose</h4>Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) of the mandible represents a severe, debilitating complication of radiation therapy (RT) for head and neck cancer (HNC). At present, no normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for risk of ORN exist. The aim of this study was to develop a multivariable clinical/dose-based NTCP model for the prediction of ORN any grade (ORN<sub>I-IV</sub>) and grade IV (ORN<sub>IV</sub>) after RT (±chemotherapy) in patients with HNC.<h4>Methods and materials</h ...[more]

PMID: 33965514

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Project description:PurposeTo quantify the long-term evaluation of optic chiasma (OC) and/or optic nerve(s) (ONs) and to develop predictive models for radiation-induced optic neuropathy (RION) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).Methods and materialsA total of 3,662 patients' OC/ONs with full visual acuity and dosimetry data between 2010 and 2015 were identified. Critical dosimetry predictors of RION were chosen by machine learning and penalized regression for survival. A nomogram containing dosimetry and clinical variables was generated for predicting RION-free survival.ResultsThe median follow-up was 71.79 (2.63-120.9) months. Sixty-six eyes in 51 patients (1.39%) developed RION. Two patients were visual field deficient, and 49 patients had visual acuity of less than 0.1 (20/200). The median latency time was 36 (3-90) months. The 3-, 5-, and 8-year cumulative incidence of RION was 0.78%, 1.19%, and 1.97%, respectively. Dmax was the most critical dosimetry variable for RION (AUC: 0.9434, the optimal cutoff: 64.48 Gy). Patients with a Dmax ≥64.48 Gy had a significantly higher risk of RION (HR = 102.25; 95%CI, 24.86-420.59; P < 0.001). Age (>44 years) (HR = 2.234, 95% CI = 1.233-4.051, p = 0.008), advanced T stage (T3 vs. T1-2: HR = 7.516, 95% CI = 1.725-32.767, p=0.007; T4 vs. T1-2: HR = 37.189, 95% CI = 8.796-157.266, P < 0.001), and tumor infiltration/compression of the OC/ONs (HR = 4.572, 95% CI = 1.316-15.874, p=0.017) were significant clinical risk factors of RION. A nomogram comprising age, T stage, tumor infiltration/compression of the OC/ON, and Dmax significantly outperformed the model, with only Dmax predicting RION (C-index: 0.916 vs. 0.880, P < 0.001 in the training set; 0.899 vs. 0.874, P=0.038 in the test set). The nomogram-defined high-risk group had a worse 8-year RION-free survival.ConclusionsIn the IMRT era, Dmax <60 Gy is safe and represents an acceptable dose constraint for most NPC patients receiving IMRT. A reasonable trade-off for selected patients with unsatisfactory tumor coverage due to proximity to the optic apparatus would be Dmax <65 Gy. Caution should be exercised when treating elderly and advanced T-stage patients or those with tumor infiltration/compression of the OC/ON. Our nomogram shows strong efficacy in predicting RION.

Dataset Information

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) Prediction Model for Osteoradionecrosis of the Mandible in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer After Radiation Therapy: Large-Scale Observational Cohort.

Purpose

Methods and materials

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) Prediction Model for Osteoradionecrosis of the Mandible in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer After Radiation Therapy: Large-Scale Observational Cohort.

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