Dataset Information

High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints.

ABSTRACT: The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R² value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.

SUBMITTER: Boo G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8921279 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints.

Boo Gianluca G Darin Edith E Leasure Douglas R DR Dooley Claire A CA Chamberlain Heather R HR Lázár Attila N AN Tschirhart Kevin K Sinai Cyrus C Hoff Nicole A NA Fuller Trevon T Musene Kamy K Batumbo Arly A Rimoin Anne W AW Tatem Andrew J AJ

Nature communications 20220314 1

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of appro ...[more]

PMID: 35288578

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Project description:Household survey data are collected by governments, international organizations, and companies to prioritize policies and allocate billions of dollars. Surveys are typically selected from recent census data; however, census data are often outdated or inaccurate. This paper describes how gridded population data might instead be used as a sample frame, and introduces the R GridSample algorithm for selecting primary sampling units (PSU) for complex household surveys with gridded population data. With a gridded population dataset and geographic boundary of the study area, GridSample allows a two-step process to sample "seed" cells with probability proportionate to estimated population size, then "grows" PSUs until a minimum population is achieved in each PSU. The algorithm permits stratification and oversampling of urban or rural areas. The approximately uniform size and shape of grid cells allows for spatial oversampling, not possible in typical surveys, possibly improving small area estimates with survey results.We replicated the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in GridSample by sampling the WorldPop 2010 UN-adjusted 100 m × 100 m gridded population dataset, stratifying by Rwanda's 30 districts, and oversampling in urban areas. The 2010 Rwanda DHS had 79 urban PSUs, 413 rural PSUs, with an average PSU population of 610 people. An equivalent sample in GridSample had 75 urban PSUs, 405 rural PSUs, and a median PSU population of 612 people. The number of PSUs differed because DHS added urban PSUs from specific districts while GridSample reallocated rural-to-urban PSUs across all districts.Gridded population sampling is a promising alternative to typical census-based sampling when census data are moderately outdated or inaccurate. Four approaches to implementation have been tried: (1) using gridded PSU boundaries produced by GridSample, (2) manually segmenting gridded PSU using satellite imagery, (3) non-probability sampling (e.g. random-walk, "spin-the-pen"), and random sampling of households. Gridded population sampling is in its infancy, and further research is needed to assess the accuracy and feasibility of gridded population sampling. The GridSample R algorithm can be used to forward this research agenda.

Project description:BackgroundIn addition to heterogeneity and artificial selection, natural selection is one of the forces used to combat climate change and improve agrobiodiversity in evolutionary plant breeding. Accurate identification of the specific genomic effects of natural selection will likely accelerate transfer between populations. Thus, insights into changes in allele frequency, adequate population size, gene flow and drift are essential. However, observing such effects often involves a trade-off between costs and resolution when a large sample of genotypes for many loci is analysed. Pool genotyping approaches achieve high resolution and precision in estimating allele frequency when sequence coverage is high. Nevertheless, high-coverage pool sequencing of large genomes is expensive.ResultsThree pool samples (n = 300, 300, 288) from a barley backcross population were generated to assess the population's allele frequency. The tested population (BC2F21) has undergone 18 generations of natural adaption to conventional farming practice. The accuracies of estimated pool-based allele frequencies and genome coverage yields were compared using three next-generation sequencing genotyping methods. To achieve accurate allele frequency estimates with low sequence coverage, we employed a haplotyping approach. Low coverage allele frequencies of closely located single polymorphisms were aggregated into a single haplotype allele frequency, yielding 2-to-271-times higher depth and increased precision. When we combined different haplotyping tactics, we found that gene and chip marker-based haplotype analyses performed equivalently or better compared with simple contig haplotype windows. Comparing multiple pool samples and referencing against an individual sequencing approach revealed that whole-genome pool re-sequencing (WGS) achieved the highest correlation with individual genotyping (≥ 0.97). In contrast, transcriptome-based genotyping (MACE) and genotyping by sequencing (GBS) pool replicates were significantly associated with higher error rates and lower correlations, but are still valuable to detect large allele frequency variations.ConclusionsThe proposed strategy identified the allele frequency of populations with high accuracy at low cost. This is particularly relevant to evolutionary plant breeding of crops with very large genomes, such as barley. Whole-genome low coverage re-sequencing at 0.03 × coverage per genotype accurately estimated the allele frequency when a loci-based haplotyping approach was applied. The implementation of annotated haplotypes capitalises on the biological background and statistical robustness.

Project description:BackgroundSustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 aims to ensure inclusive and equitable access for all by 2030, leaving no one behind. One indicator selected to measure progress towards achievement is the participation rate of youth in education (SDG 4.3.1). Here we aim to understand drivers of school attendance using one country in East Africa as an example.MethodsNationally representative household survey data (2015-16 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey) were used to explore individual, household and contextual factors associated with secondary school attendance in Tanzania. These included, age, head of household's levels of education, gender, household wealth index and total number of children under five. Contextual factors such as average pupil to qualified teacher ratio and geographic access to school were also tested at cluster level. A two-level random intercept logistic regression model was used in exploring association of these factors with attendance in a multi-level framework.ResultsAge of household head, educational attainments of either of the head of the household or parent, child characteristics such as gender, were important predictors of secondary school attendance. Being in a richer household and with fewer siblings of lower age (under the age of 5) were associated with increased odds of attendance (OR = 0.91, CI 95%: 0.86; 0.96). Contextual factors were less likely to be associated with secondary school attendance.ConclusionsIndividual and household level factors are likely to impact secondary school attendance rates more compared to contextual factors, suggesting an increased focus of interventions at these levels is needed. Future studies should explore the impact of interventions targeting these levels. Policies should ideally promote gender equality in accessing secondary school as well as support those families where the dependency ratio is high. Strategies to reduce poverty will also increase the likelihood of attending school.

Dataset Information

High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints.

Publications

High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints.

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