Dataset Information

Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden.

ABSTRACT: Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. This result appears relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlights the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated.

SUBMITTER: Latour C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8926176 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden.

Latour Chiara C Peracchi Franco F Spagnolo Giancarlo G

PloS one 20220316 3

Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. ...[more]

PMID: 35294472

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Project description:BackgroundVarious interventions, programs and policies have been implemented to improve physical activity (PA) levels worldwide. However, countries continue to face barriers and challenges in achieving their targets. To date, there is a lack of study on the evaluation of physical activity (PA) promotion and how it's associated with public participation.MethodsThis study assessed PA promotion in eight different settings in terms of policy availability, policy implementation, and public participation in PA programs. Policy availability was assessed by reviewing 384 policy and strategy documents, rules, regulations, legislation, and guidelines on PA. We scored the documents by using the Comprehensive Analysis of Policy on Physical Activity (CAPPA) framework. Data to assess policy implementation and public participation were taken from the Thailand Report Card Survey 2021 (TRC2021), and the Thailand Surveillance on Physical Activity (SPA) 2021. Both surveys comprised over 5,000 nationally-representative samples from on-screen, face-to-face interviews, and an online self-administered survey. We scored the policy implementation and public participation based on respondents' response towards policy implementation and participation indicators. A grading scheme was applied to indicate how successful an investment has been made.ResultsPublic education and mass media received the highest average score in policy availability, implementation and public participation in PA program (67.9%, grade B), followed by active urban design (66.1%, grade B-) and active transport (63.7%, grade B-). Workplace, whole-of-school, and community-wide initiatives were the investments with the lowest scores, implying low availability, limited implementation, and less accessibility to public. Females were less likely to participate in active transport, active urban design, sports/recreation for all, workplace activity, and community-wide initiatives. Age and educational attainment were consistent predictors of utilization in all investments.ConclusionsWith varying degrees of policy availability and accessibility, public participation in PA investments is likely to be constrained by biological and socioeconomic inequality. Future investments should aim at providing generalized or tailored interventions to ensure equal access and participation for all segments of the population.

Project description:BackgroundCountries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections, deaths, and better economic performance, compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies. However, the continuous evolution of new strains has raised the question of whether COVID-19 eradication is still possible given the limited public health response capacity and fatigue of the epidemic. We aim to investigate the mechanism of the Zero-COVID policy on outbreak containment, and to explore the possibility of eradication of Omicron transmission using the citywide test-trace-isolate (CTTI) strategy.MethodsWe develop a compartmental model incorporating the CTTI Zero-COVID policy to understand how it contributes to the SARS-CoV-2 elimination. We employ our model to mimic the Delta outbreak in Fujian Province, China, from September 10 to October 9, 2021, and the Omicron outbreak in Jilin Province, China for the period from March 1 to April 1, 2022. Projections and sensitivity analyses were conducted using dynamical system and Latin Hypercube Sampling/ Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC).ResultsCalibration results of the model estimate the Fujian Delta outbreak can end in 30 (95% confidence interval CI: 28-33) days, after 10 (95% CI: 9-11) rounds of citywide testing. The emerging Jilin Omicron outbreak may achieve zero COVID cases in 50 (95% CI: 41-57) days if supported with sufficient public health resources and population compliance, which shows the effectiveness of the CTTI Zero-COVID policy.ConclusionsThe CTTI policy shows the capacity for the eradication of the Delta outbreaks and also the Omicron outbreaks. Nonetheless, the implementation of radical CTTI is challenging, which requires routine monitoring for early detection, adequate testing capacity, efficient contact tracing, and high isolation compliance, which constrain its benefits in regions with limited resources. Moreover, these challenges become even more acute in the face of more contagious variants with a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Hence, in regions where CTTI is not possible, personal protection, public health control measures, and vaccination are indispensable for mitigating and exiting the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dataset Information

Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden.

Publications

Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden.

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