Epidemic Trends in High Tuberculosis Burden Countries During the Last Three Decades and Feasibility of Achieving the Global Targets at the Country Level.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To estimate the epidemic trends of tuberculosis (TB) in 30 high burden countries (HBCs) over the past 30 years, which is crucial for tracking the status of disease control, especially at the country level.

Methods

Annual data on incidence and mortality of TB in these 30 HBCs were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to evaluate the trends of incidence and mortality. The trajectory analysis was used to identify different trends among the subgroup countries. The predicted incidence and mortality rates in 2025, 2030, and 2035 were also calculated.

Results

The incidence and mortality decreased in most of the HBCs. The AAPCs of incidence ranged between -4.0 (Indonesia) and -0.2% (DR Congo) (all

SUBMITTER: Ding C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8927670 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature