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An ODE model of yaws elimination in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea.

ABSTRACT: Yaws is a chronic infection that affects mainly the skin, bone and cartilage and spreads mostly between children. The new approval of a medication as treatment in 2012 has revived eradication efforts and now only few known localized foci of infection remain. The World Health Organization strategy mandates an initial round of total community treatment (TCT) with single-dose azithromycin followed either by further TCT or by total targeted treatment (TTT), an active case-finding and treatment of cases and their contacts. We develop the compartmental ODE model of yaws transmission and treatment for these scenarios. We solve for disease-free and endemic equilibria and also perform the stability analysis. We calibrate the model and validate its predictions on the data from Lihir Island in Papua New Guinea. We demonstrate that TTT strategy is efficient in preventing outbreaks but, due to the presence of asymptomatic latent cases, TTT will not eliminate yaws within a reasonable time frame. To achieve the 2030 eradication target, TCT should be applied instead.

SUBMITTER: Kimball P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8934533 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An ODE model of yaws elimination in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea.

Kimball Presley P Levenson Jacob J Moore Amy A Rychtar Jan J Taylor Dewey D

PeerJ 20220317

Yaws is a chronic infection that affects mainly the skin, bone and cartilage and spreads mostly between children. The new approval of a medication as treatment in 2012 has revived eradication efforts and now only few known localized foci of infection remain. The World Health Organization strategy mandates an initial round of total community treatment (TCT) with single-dose azithromycin followed either by further TCT or by total targeted treatment (TTT), an active case-finding and treatment of ca ...[more]

PMID: 35317072

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Project description:BackgroundYaws is a neglected tropical disease, caused by Treponema pallidum subsp. pertenue. The disease causes chronic lesions, primarily in young children living in remote villages in tropical climates. As part of a global yaws eradication campaign initiated by the World Health Organization, we sought to develop and evaluate a molecular typing method to distinguish different strains of T. pallidum subsp. pertenue for disease control and epidemiological purposes.Methods and principal findingsPublished genome sequences of strains of T. pallidum subsp. pertenue and pallidum were compared to identify polymorphic genetic loci among the strains. DNA from a number of existing historical Treponema isolates, as well as a subset of samples from yaws patients collected in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea, were analyzed using these targets. From these data, three genes (tp0548, tp0136 and tp0326) were ultimately selected to give a high discriminating capability among the T. pallidum subsp. pertenue samples tested. Intragenic regions of these three target genes were then selected to enhance the discriminating capability of the typing scheme using short readily amplifiable loci. This 3-gene multilocus sequence typing (MLST) method was applied to existing historical human yaws strains, the Fribourg-Blanc simian isolate, and DNA from 194 lesion swabs from yaws patients on Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea. Among all samples tested, fourteen molecular types were identified, seven of which were found in patient samples and seven among historical isolates or DNA. Three types (JG8, TD6, and SE7) were predominant on Lihir Island.ConclusionsThis MLST approach allows molecular typing and differentiation of yaws strains. This method could be a useful tool to complement epidemiological studies in regions where T. pallidum subsp. pertenue is prevalent with the overall goals of improving our understanding of yaws transmission dynamics and helping the yaws eradication campaign to succeed.

Project description:BackgroundAnnual mass drug administration (MDA) over five years is the WHO's recommended strategy to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF). Some experts, however, consider that longer periods of treatment might be necessary in certain high prevalence and transmission environments based upon past unsuccessful field experience and modelling.Methodology/principal findingsTo evaluate predictors of success in a LF control program we conducted an ecological study during a pre-existing MDA program. We studied 27 villages in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea, from two areas with different infection rates before MDA. We undertook surveys to collect information on variables potentially having an influence on the outcome of the program, including epidemiological (baseline prevalence of infection, immigration rate), entomological (vector density) and operational (treatment coverage, vector control strategies) variables. The success in a village was defined using variables related to the infection (circulating filarial antigenemia prevalence < 1%) and transmission (antigenemia prevalence < 1 in 1000 children born since start of MDA). 8709 people were involved in the MDA program and average coverage rates were around 70%. The overall prevalence of filariasis fell from an initial 17.91% to 3.76% at round 5 (p < 0.001). Viewed on a village by village basis, 12/27 (44%) villages achieved success. In multivariate analysis, low baseline prevalence was the only factor predicting both success in reducing infection rates (OR 19,26; CI 95% 1,12 to 331,82) and success in preventing new infections (OR 27,44; CI 95% 1,05 to 719,6). Low vector density and the use of an optimal vector control strategy were also associated with success in reducing infection rates, but this did not reach statistical significance.Conclusions/significanceOur results provide the data that supports the recommendation that high endemic areas may require longer duration MDA programs, or alternative control strategies.

Project description:BackgroundThe Lihir Islands of Papua New Guinea host a mining operation that has resulted in a mine-impacted zone (MIZ) with reduced malaria transmission and a substantial influx of mine employees, informal cross-country traders, returning locals, and visitors. Prevalence of malaria parasites was assessed in travellers arriving on the Lihir Group of Islands to evaluate the risk of parasite importation.MethodsIn 2018, a cross-sectional study at the airport and main wharf was conducted, targeting asymptomatic travellers who had been away from Lihir for at least 12 days. Microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and quantitative PCR (qPCR) were used to determine Plasmodium parasite prevalence, employing logistic regression models to identify factors associated with qPCR positivity.Results398 travellers arriving by plane and 402 arriving by boat were included. Both cohorts were significantly different. Mean age among travellers arriving by plane was 40.1 years (SD ± 10.1), 93% were male and 96% were employed at the mine. In contrast, among travellers arriving by boat, the mean age was 31.7 years (SD ± 14.0), 68% were male and 36% were employed at the mine. The prevalence of malaria infection among travellers arriving by plane was 1% by RDT and microscopy, and increased to 5% by qPCR. In contrast, those arriving by boat showed a prevalence of 8% by RDT and microscopy, and 17% by qPCR. Risk factors for infection were arriving by boat (OR 4.2; 95%CI 2.45,7.21), arriving from nearby provinces with high malaria incidence (OR 5.02; 95%CI 1.80, 14.01), and having been away from Lihir for 91 days or more (OR 4.15; 95%CI 2.58, 6.66). Being mine worker staying at the mine accommodation was related with less infection risk (OR 0.24; 95% CI 0.14, 0.43); while Lihirian residents returning from a trip, VFRs, or people with trading unrelated to mining had higher risks (p = 0.0066).ConclusionsTravellers arriving by boat faced increased risk of malaria infection than those arriving by plane. This subpopulation poses an import risk to the MIZ and the rest of Lihir Islands. Screening of high-risk groups at wharfs, and collaboration with nearby Islands, could sustain reduced transmission and facilitate malaria elimination strategies.

Project description:BackgroundUniversal coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is an essential component of malaria control programmes. Three-yearly mass distribution of LLINs in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has been successful in reducing infection transmission since 2009, but malaria prevalence ramped up from 2015 onwards. Although LLIN universal coverage is mostly achieved during these campaigns, it may not be related with net use over time. Uses given to LLINs and non-compliance of this strategy were evaluated.MethodsA knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) cross-sectional study was conducted in Lihir Islands, PNG, 2-2.5 years after the last LLIN mass distribution campaign. Data on bed net ownership, use and maintenance behaviour was collected using a household questionnaire administered by trained community volunteers. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with owning at least one LLIN and sleeping under a LLIN the previous night.ResultsAmong 2694 households surveyed, 27.4 % (95 % CI: 25.8-29.2) owned at least one LLIN and 8.7 % (95 % CI: 7.6-9.8) had an adequate LLIN coverage (at least one LLIN for every two people). Out of 13,595 individuals in the surveyed households, 13.6 % (95 % CI: 13.0--4.2) reported having slept under a LLIN the preceding night. Determinants for sleeping under LLIN included living in a household with adequate LLIN coverage [adjusted OR (aOR) = 5.82 (95 % CI: 3.23-10.49)], household heads knowledge about LLINs [aOR = 16.44 (95 % CI: 8.29-32.58)], and female gender [aOR = 1.92 (95 % CI: 1.53-2.40)] (all p-values < 0.001). LLIN use decreased with older age [aOR = 0.29 (95 % CI: 0.21-0.40) for ≥ 15 year-olds, aOR = 0.38 (95 % CI: 0.27-0.55) for 5-14 year-olds] compared to < 5 year-olds (p-value < 0.001). Knowledge on the use of LLIN was good in 37.0 % of the household heads. Repurposed nets were reported serving as fishing nets (30.4 %), fruits and seedlings protection (26.6 %), covering up food (19.0 %) and bed linen (11.5 %).ConclusionsTwo years after mass distribution, LLIN coverage and use in Lihir Islands is extremely low. Three yearly distribution campaigns may not suffice to maintain an acceptable LLIN coverage unless knowledge on maintenance and use is promoted trough educational campaigns.

Project description:BackgroundA population-wide, systematic screening initiative for tuberculosis (TB) was implemented on Daru island in the Western Province of Papua New Guinea, where TB is known to be highly prevalent. The initiative used a mobile van equipped with a digital X-ray device, computer-aided detection (CAD) software to identify TB-related abnormalities on chest radiographs, and GeneXpert machines for follow-on diagnostic testing. We describe the results of the TB screening initiative, evaluate its population-level impact and examine risk factors associated with TB detection.MethodsThrough a retrospective review of screening data, we assessed the effectiveness of the screening by examining the enrolment coverage and the proportion of people with TB among screened subjects. A cascade analysis was performed to illustrate the flow of participants in the screening algorithm. We conducted univariate and multivariate analyses to identify factors associated with TB. Furthermore, we estimated the number of additional cases detected by the project by examining the trend of routine TB case notifications during the intervention period, compared to the historical baseline cases and trend-adjusted expected cases.ResultsOf the island's 18,854 residents, 8,085 (42.9%) were enrolled and 7,970 (98.6%) had chest X-ray interpreted by the CAD4TB software. A total of 1,116 (14.0%) participants were considered to have abnormal CXR. A total of 69 Xpert-positive cases were diagnosed, resulting in a detection rate of 853 per 100 000 population screened. 19.4% of people with TB had resistance to rifampicin. People who were in older age groups (aOR 6.6, 95%CI: 1.5-29.1 for the 45-59 age group), were severely underweight (aOR 2.5, 95%CI:1.0-6.1) or underweight (aOR 2.1, 95%CI: 1.1-3.8), lived in households < 5 people (aOR 3.4, 95%CI:1.8-6.6) and had a past history of TB (aOR 2.1, 95%CI: 1.2-3.6) were more likely to have TB. The number of bacteriologically confirmed TB notified during the intervention period was 79.3% and 90.8% higher than baseline notifications and forecasted notifications, respectively.ConclusionThe screening project demonstrated its effectiveness with the high Xpert-positive TB prevalence among the participants and by successfully yielding additional cases of bacteriologically confirmed TB including rifampicin-resistant TB. The results and lessons learnt from the project should inform future TB screening initiatives in Papua New Guinea.

Project description:ObjectivesPapua New Guinea (PNG) has among the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) globally and is committed to reducing their incidence. The Syphilis Interventions Towards Elimination (SITE) model was used to explore the expected impact and cost of alternative syphilis intervention scale-up scenarios.MethodsSITE is a dynamical model of syphilis transmission among adults 15-49 years. Individuals are divided into nine groups based on sexual behaviour and into six stages of infection. The model was calibrated to PNG using data from routine surveillance, bio-behavioural surveys, research studies and program records. Inputs included syphilis prevalence, risk behaviours, intervention coverage and service delivery unit costs. Scenarios compared different interventions (clinical treatment, contact tracing, syphilis screening, and condom promotion) for incidence and cost per infection averted over 2021-2030.ResultsIncreasing treatment coverage of symptomatic primary/secondary-stage syphilis cases from 25-35% in 2020 to 60% from 2023 onwards reduced estimated incidence over 2021-2030 by 55%, compared to a scenario assuming constant coverage at 2019-2020 levels. The introduction of contact tracing in 2020, assuming 0.4 contacts per symptomatic person treated, reduced incidence over 2021-2030 by 10%. Increasing screening coverage by 20-30 percentage points from the 2019-2020 level reduced incidence over 2021-2030 by 3-16% depending on the target population. Scaling-up clinical, symptom-driven treatment and contact tracing had the lowest cost per infection averted, followed by condom promotion and periodic screening of female sex workers and men who have sex with men.ConclusionsPNG could considerably reduce its syphilis burden by scaling-up clinical treatment and contact tracing alongside targeted behavioural risk reduction interventions. SITE is a useful tool countries can apply to inform national STI programming and resource allocation.

Dataset Information

An ODE model of yaws elimination in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea.

Publications

An ODE model of yaws elimination in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea.

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