Disease transmission and mass gatherings: a case study on meningococcal infection during Hajj.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Mass gatherings can not only trigger major outbreaks on-site but also facilitate global spread of infectious pathogens. Hajj is one of the largest mass gathering events worldwide where over two million pilgrims from all over the world gather annually creating intense congestion.

Methods

We developed a meta-population model to represent the transmission dynamics of Neisseria meningitidis and the impact of Hajj pilgrimage on the risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) for pilgrims population, local population at the Hajj site and country of origin of Hajj pilgrims. This model was calibrated using data on IMD over 17 years (1995-2011) and further used to simulate potential changes in vaccine policy and endemic conditions.

Results

The effect of increased d

SUBMITTER: Coudeville L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8938638 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature