Forecasted and Observed Drug Overdose Deaths in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cartus AR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8938716 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Forecasted and Observed Drug Overdose Deaths in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020.
Cartus Abigail R AR Li Yu Y Macmadu Alexandria A Goedel William C WC Allen Bennett B Cerdá Magdalena M Marshall Brandon D L BDL
JAMA network open 20220301 3
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Project description:ImportanceThe rate of deaths from overdose has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent US overdose mortality rates have been markedly high. However, scant data are available on the causes of this increase or subpopulations at elevated risk.ObjectiveTo evaluate the rates and characteristics of deaths from drug overdose before vs during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective, population-based cohort study used data from 4 statewide databases linked at the person level via the Rhode Island Data Ecosystem on adults with deaths due to overdose in Rhode Island from January 1 to August 31, 2019, and January 1 to August 31, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresThe rates of unintentional deaths from drug-related overdose during the 2019 and 2020 observation periods overall and by sociodemographic characteristics, drugs contributing to the cause of death, location of death, and socioeconomic factors were evaluated. In subgroup analyses restricted to Medicaid beneficiaries (n = 271), the proportions of deaths from overdose by behavioral health treatment and diagnosis claims in the year before death were also examined.ResultsA total of 470 adults who died of drug overdose were included in the analysis (353 men [75%]; mean [SD] age, 43.5 [12.1] years). The rate of deaths from overdose in Rhode Island increased 28.1%, from 29.2 per 100 000 person-years in 2019 to 37.4 per 100 000 person-years in 2020 (P = .009). Compared with 2019, rates of deaths due to overdose during 2020 were higher among men (43.2 vs 59.2 per 100 000 person-years; P = .003), non-Hispanic White individuals (31.0 vs 42.0 per 100 000 person-years; P = .005), single individuals (54.8 vs 70.4 per 100 000 person-years; P = .04), deaths involving synthetic opioids (20.8 vs 28.3 per 100 000 person-years; P = .005), and deaths occurring in a personal residence (13.2 vs 19.7 per 100 000 person-years; P = .003). A decrease in the proportion of deaths from overdose involving heroin (11 of 206 [5%] vs <2% [exact value suppressed]; P = .02) and an increase among persons experiencing job loss (16 of 206 [8%] vs 41 of 264 [16%]; P = .01) from 2019 to 2020 were observed. Among individuals who died of overdose and were Medicaid beneficiaries, the proportions of those aged 50 to 59 years with anxiety (11 of 121 [9%] vs 29 of 150 [19%]; P = .03), men with depression (27 of 121 [22%] vs 57 of 150 [38%]; P = .008), and men with anxiety (28 of 121 [23%] vs 55 of 150 [37%]; P = .02) increased during 2020 compared with 2019.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, during the first 8 months of 2020, the rate of deaths from overdose increased in Rhode Island compared with the same period in 2019, and several emerging characteristics of deaths from drug overdose during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic were identified. These findings may inform interventions that address macroenvironmental changes associated with the pandemic.
| S-EPMC8449276 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesExcess deaths, an indicator that compares total mortality rates before and during a pandemic, offer a comprehensive view of the pandemic's impact. However, discrepancies may arise from variations in estimating expected deaths. This study aims to compare excess deaths in Korea during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic using 3 methods and to analyze patterns using the most appropriate method.MethodsExpected deaths from 2020 to 2022 were estimated using mortality data from 2015-2019 as reference years. This estimation employed 3 approaches: (1) simple average, (2) age-adjusted average, and (3) age-adjusted linear regression. Excess deaths by age, gender, and cause of death were also presented.ResultsThe number of excess deaths varied depending on the estimation method used, reaching its highest point with the simple average and its lowest with the age-adjusted average. Age-adjusted linear regression, which accounts for both the aging population and declining mortality rates, was considered most appropriate. Using this model, excess deaths were estimated at 0.3% for 2020, 4.0% for 2021, and 20.7% for 2022. Excess deaths surged among individuals in their 20s throughout the pandemic, largely attributed to a rise in self-harm and suicide. Additionally, the results indicated sharp increases in deaths associated with "endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases" and "symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified."ConclusionsSubstantial variations in excess deaths were evident based on estimation method, with a notable increase in 2022. The heightened excess deaths among young adults and specific causes underscore key considerations for future pandemic responses.
| S-EPMC11471339 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceBuprenorphine remains underused in treating opioid use disorder, despite its effectiveness. During the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US government implemented prescribing flexibilities to support continued access.ObjectiveTo determine whether buprenorphine-involved overdose deaths changed after implementing these policy changes and highlight characteristics and circumstances of these deaths.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used data from the State Unintentional Drug Overdose Reporting System (SUDORS) to assess overdose deaths in 46 states and the District of Columbia occurring July 2019 to June 2021. Data were analyzed from March 7, 2022, to June 30, 2022.Main outcomes and measuresBuprenorphine-involved and other opioid-involved overdose deaths were examined. Monthly opioid-involved overdose deaths and the percentage involving buprenorphine were computed to assess trends. Proportions and exact 95% CIs of drug coinvolvement, demographics, and circumstances were calculated by group.ResultsDuring July 2019 to June 2021, 32 jurisdictions reported 89 111 total overdose deaths and 74 474 opioid-involved overdose deaths, including 1955 buprenorphine-involved overdose deaths, accounting for 2.2% of all drug overdose deaths and 2.6% of opioid-involved overdose deaths. Median (IQR) age was similar for buprenorphine-involved overdose deaths (41 [34-55] years) and other opioid-involved overdose deaths (40 [31-52] years). A higher proportion of buprenorphine-involved overdose decedents, compared with other opioid-involved decedents, were female (36.1% [95% CI, 34.2%-38.2%] vs 29.1% [95% CI, 28.8%-29.4%]), non-Hispanic White (86.1% [95% CI, 84.6%-87.6%] vs 69.4% [95% CI, 69.1%-69.7%]), and residing in rural areas (20.8% [95% CI, 19.1%-22.5%] vs 11.4% [95% CI, 11.2%-11.7%]). Although monthly opioid-involved overdose deaths increased, the proportion involving buprenorphine fluctuated but did not increase during July 2019 to June 2021. Nearly all (92.7% [95% CI, 91.5%-93.7%]) buprenorphine-involved overdose deaths involved at least 1 other drug; higher proportions involved other prescription medications compared with other opioid-involved overdose deaths (eg, anticonvulsants: 18.6% [95% CI, 17.0%-20.3%] vs 5.4% [95% CI, 5.2%-5.5%]) and a lower proportion involved illicitly manufactured fentanyls (50.2% [95% CI, 48.1%-52.3%] vs 85.3% [95% CI, 85.1%-85.5%]). Buprenorphine decedents were more likely to be receiving mental health treatment than other opioid-involved overdose decedents (31.4% [95% CI, 29.3%-33.5%] vs 13.3% [95% CI, 13.1%-13.6%]).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that actions to facilitate access to buprenorphine-based treatment for opioid use disorder during the COVID-19 pandemic were not associated with an increased proportion of overdose deaths involving buprenorphine. Efforts are needed to expand more equitable and culturally competent access to and provision of buprenorphine-based treatment.
| S-EPMC9860517 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDrug overdose is an escalating public health crisis in the United States (U.S.). This study evaluated the temporal trend of drug overdose-related deaths in the U.S., with an emphasis on identifying disparities across subpopulations and the contributing drugs.MethodsUsing the nationwide death dataset from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), we estimated the drug overdose-related age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and temporal trends for individuals aged 12 and older from 2012 to 2022. Excess mortality during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was evaluated based on the pre-pandemic trends using predictive modeling analysis.FindingsAmong 809,967 overdose-related deaths during 2012-2022, ASMR increased by 8.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.0%-11.9%] per year from 2012 to 2019 and increased to 12.9% (95% CI: 2.1%-24.8%) from 2019 to 2022, with the excess ASMR of 16.9% in 2020, increased to 26.4% in 2021 and then decreased to 19.3% in 2022. Significant age, sex, racial/ethnic and geographic disparities were demonstrated, with adolescents (annual percentage change [APC]:21.6%) and males (APC:13.6%) having the most pronounced increase during the pandemic. Ethnic minorities especially the non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native experienced the highest excess ASMR (33.1% in 2020). Illicit fentanyl and synthetics starting with the lowest ASMR in 2012 (1.0 per 100,000), marked the most dramatic increase and became the leading cause of overdose-related death since 2016 (7.5 per 100,000), leading to the highest ASMR by 2022 (27.4 per 100,000). All drug types except heroin experienced varying degrees of excess ASMRs, with prescription opioid pain relievers (23.5%-55.1%), benzodiazepines (27.4%-40.9%) and antidepressants (10.4%-17.8%) exhibiting consistent increases from 2020 to 2022, while the excess ASMRs for illicit fentanyl and synthetics (25.3%-10.0%), psychostimulants (32.8%-14.6%) and methadone (35.0%-33.3%) decreased between 2021 and 2022.InterpretationOverdose-related mortality is increasing at an alarming rate, and the stark differences point to the need for targeted interventions to reduce the burden of drug overdose deaths.FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
| S-EPMC11577563 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9892955 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8933830 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 is caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and has reached pandemic proportions. Since then, several clinical characteristics have been associated with poor outcomes. This study aimed to describe the morbidity profile of COVID-19 deaths in Portugal. A study was performed including deaths certificated in Portugal with "COVID-19" (ICD-10: U07.1 or U07.2) coded as the underlying cause of death from the National e-Death Certificates Information System between 16 March and 31 December 2020. Comorbidities were derived from ICD-10 codes using the Charlson and Elixhauser indexes. The resident Portuguese population estimates for 2020 were used. The study included 6701 deaths (death rate: 65.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), predominantly males (72.1). The male-to-female mortality ratio was 1.1. The male-to-female mortality rate ratio was 1.2; however, within age groups, it varied 5.0-11.4-fold. COVID-19 deaths in Portugal during 2020 occurred mainly in individuals aged 80 years or older, predominantly in public healthcare institutions. Uncomplicated hypertension, uncomplicated diabetes mellitus, congestive heart failure, renal failure, cardiac arrhythmias, dementia, and cerebrovascular disease were observed among COVID-19 deceased patients, with prevalences higher than 10%. A high prevalence of zero morbidities was registered using both the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidities lists (above 40.2%). Nevertheless, high multimorbidity was also identified at the time of COVID-19 death (about 36.5%). Higher multimorbidity levels were observed in men, increasing with age up to 80 years old. Zero-morbidity prevalence and high multimorbidity prevalences varied throughout the year 2020, seemingly more elevated in the mortality waves' peaks, suggesting variation according to the degree of disease incidence at a given period. This study provides detailed sociodemographic and clinical information on all certificated deaths from COVID-19 in Portugal during 2020, showing complex and extreme levels of morbidity (zero-morbidity vs. high multimorbidity) dynamics during the first year of the pandemic in Portugal.
| S-EPMC8999817 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015-2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.
| S-EPMC10212149 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn Japan, the latest estimates of excess all-cause deaths through January to July 2020 showed that the overall (direct and indirect) mortality burden from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was relatively low compared to Europe and the United States. However, consistency between the reported number of COVID-19 deaths and excess all-cause deaths was limited across prefectures, suggesting the necessity of distinguishing the direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19 by cause-specific analysis. To examine whether deaths from road injuries decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, consistent with a possible reduction of road transport activity connected to Japan's state of emergency declaration, we estimated the exiguous deaths from road injuries in each week from January to September 2020 by 47 prefectures.MethodsTo estimate the expected weekly number of deaths from road injuries, a quasi-Poisson regression was applied to daily traffic fatalities data obtained from Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis, Japan. We set two thresholds, point estimate and lower bound of the two-sided 95% prediction interval, for exiguous deaths, and report the range of differences between the observed number of deaths and each of these thresholds as exiguous deaths.ResultsSince January 2020, in a few weeks the observed deaths from road injuries fell below the 95% lower bound, such as April 6-12 (exiguous deaths 5-21, percent deficit 2.82-38.14), May 4-10 (8-23, 21.05-43.01), July 20-26 (12-29, 30.77-51.53), and August 3-9 (3-20, 7.32-34.41). However, those less than the 95% lower bound were also observed in weeks in the previous years.ConclusionsThe number of road traffic fatalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan has decreased slightly, but not significantly, in several weeks compared with the average year. This suggests that the relatively small changes in excess all-cause mortality observed in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic could not be explained simply by an offsetting reduction in traffic deaths. Considering a variety of other indirect effects, evaluating an independent, unbiased measure of COVID-19-related mortality burden could provide insight into the design of future broad-based infectious disease counter-measures and offer lessons to other countries.
| S-EPMC7703507 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1055 | biostudies-other