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Modeling of waning immunity after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and influencing factors.

ABSTRACT: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are crucial in controlling COVID-19, but knowledge of which factors determine waning immunity is limited. We examined antibody levels and T-cell gamma-interferon release after two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine or a combination of ChAdOx1-nCoV19 and BNT162b2 vaccines for up to 230 days after the first dose. Generalized mixed models with and without natural cubic splines were used to determine immunity over time. Antibody responses were influenced by natural infection, sex, and age. IgA only became significant in naturally infected. A one-year IgG projection suggested an initial two-phase response in those given the second dose delayed (ChAdOx1/BNT162b2) followed by a more rapid decrease of antibody levels. T-cell responses correlated significantly with IgG antibody responses. Our results indicate that IgG levels will drop at different rates depending on prior infection, age, sex, T-cell response, and the interval between vaccine injections. Only natural infection mounted a significant and lasting IgA response.

SUBMITTER: Perez-Alos L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8960902 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling of waning immunity after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and influencing factors.

Pérez-Alós Laura L Armenteros Jose Juan Almagro JJA Madsen Johannes Roth JR Hansen Cecilie Bo CB Jarlhelt Ida I Hamm Sebastian Rask SR Heftdal Line Dam LD Pries-Heje Mia Marie MM Møller Dina Leth DL Fogh Kamille K Hasselbalch Rasmus Bo RB Rosbjerg Anne A Brunak Søren S Sørensen Erik E Larsen Margit Anita Hørup MAH Ostrowski Sisse Rye SR Frikke-Schmidt Ruth R Bayarri-Olmos Rafael R Hilsted Linda Maria LM Iversen Kasper Karmark KK Bundgaard Henning H Nielsen Susanne Dam SD Garred Peter P

Nature communications 20220328 1

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are crucial in controlling COVID-19, but knowledge of which factors determine waning immunity is limited. We examined antibody levels and T-cell gamma-interferon release after two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine or a combination of ChAdOx1-nCoV19 and BNT162b2 vaccines for up to 230 days after the first dose. Generalized mixed models with and without natural cubic splines were used to determine immunity over time. Antibody responses were influenced by natural infection, sex, and age ...[more]

PMID: 35347129

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Project description:BackgroundInfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) provides natural immunity against reinfection. Recent studies have shown waning of the immunity provided by the BNT162b2 vaccine. The time course of natural and hybrid immunity is unknown.MethodsUsing the Israeli Ministry of Health database, we extracted data for August and September 2021, when the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant was predominant, on all persons who had been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who had received coronavirus 2019 vaccine. We used Poisson regression with adjustment for confounding factors to compare the rates of infection as a function of time since the last immunity-conferring event.ResultsThe number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection per 100,000 person-days at risk (adjusted rate) increased with the time that had elapsed since vaccination with BNT162b2 or since previous infection. Among unvaccinated persons who had recovered from infection, this rate increased from 10.5 among those who had been infected 4 to less than 6 months previously to 30.2 among those who had been infected 1 year or more previously. Among persons who had received a single dose of vaccine after previous infection, the adjusted rate was low (3.7) among those who had been vaccinated less than 2 months previously but increased to 11.6 among those who had been vaccinated at least 6 months previously. Among previously uninfected persons who had received two doses of vaccine, the adjusted rate increased from 21.1 among those who had been vaccinated less than 2 months previously to 88.9 among those who had been vaccinated at least 6 months previously.ConclusionsAmong persons who had been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 (regardless of whether they had received any dose of vaccine or whether they had received one dose before or after infection), protection against reinfection decreased as the time increased since the last immunity-conferring event; however, this protection was higher than that conferred after the same time had elapsed since receipt of a second dose of vaccine among previously uninfected persons. A single dose of vaccine after infection reinforced protection against reinfection.

Project description:The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated a considerable number of infections and associated morbidity and mortality across the world. Recovery from these infections, combined with the onset of large-scale vaccination, have led to rapidly-changing population-level immunological landscapes. In turn, these complexities have highlighted a number of important unknowns related to the breadth and strength of immunity following recovery or vaccination. Using simple mathematical models, we investigate the medium-term impacts of waning immunity against severe disease on immuno-epidemiological dynamics. We find that uncertainties in the duration of severity-blocking immunity (imparted by either infection or vaccination) can lead to a large range of medium-term population-level outcomes (i.e. infection characteristics and immune landscapes). Furthermore, we show that epidemiological dynamics are sensitive to the strength and duration of underlying host immune responses; this implies that determining infection levels from hospitalizations requires accurate estimates of these immune parameters. More durable vaccines both reduce these uncertainties and alleviate the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in pessimistic outcomes. However, heterogeneity in vaccine uptake drastically changes immune landscapes toward larger fractions of individuals with waned severity-blocking immunity. In particular, if hesitancy is substantial, more robust vaccines have almost no effects on population-level immuno-epidemiology, even if vaccination rates are compensatorily high among vaccine-adopters. This pessimistic scenario for vaccination heterogeneity arises because those few individuals that are vaccine-adopters are so readily re-vaccinated that the duration of vaccinal immunity has no appreciable consequences on their immune status. Furthermore, we find that this effect is heightened if vaccine-hesitants have increased transmissibility (e.g. due to riskier behavior). Overall, our results illustrate the necessity to characterize both transmission-blocking and severity-blocking immune time scales. Our findings also underline the importance of developing robust next-generation vaccines with equitable mass vaccine deployment.

Dataset Information

Modeling of waning immunity after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and influencing factors.

Publications

Modeling of waning immunity after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and influencing factors.

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