Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0.

ABSTRACT: Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal development. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST-CFS1.0, previously SINTEX-F). The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands, initialized from 1 March. In addition, the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but the individual members show great discrepancies, indicati

SUBMITTER: Ying W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8962280 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature