Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Delhi, India.

ABSTRACT: India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ra

SUBMITTER: Pons-Salort M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8962916 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature