Interval forecasts of weekly incident and cumulative COVID-19 mortality in the United States: A comparison of combining methods.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A combined forecast from multiple models is typically more accurate than an individual forecast, but there are few examples of studies of combining in infectious disease forecasting. We investigated the accuracy of different ways of combining interval forecasts of weekly incident and cumulative coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) mortality.

Methods

We considered weekly interval forecasts, for 1- to 4-week prediction horizons, with out-of-sample periods of approximately 18 months ending on 8 January 2022, for multiple locations in the United States, using data from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Our comparison involved simple and more complex combining methods, including methods that involve trimming outliers or performance-based weights. Prediction accuracy was evalua

SUBMITTER: Taylor KS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8963571 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature