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Updating global urbanization projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

ABSTRACT: Urbanization level is an important indicator of socioeconomic development, and projecting its dynamics is fundamental for studies related to global socioeconomic and climate change. This paper aims to update the projections of global urbanization from 2015 to 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways by using the logistic fitting model and iteratively identifying reference countries. Based on historical urbanization level database from the World Urbanization Prospects, projected urbanization levels and uncertainties are provided for 204 countries and areas every five years. The 2010-2100 year-by-year projected urbanization levels and uncertainties based on the annual historical data from the World Bank (WB) for 188 of countries and areas are also provided. The projections based on the two datasets were compared and the latter were validated using the historical values of the WB for the years 2010-2018. The updated dataset of urbanization level is relevant for understanding future socioeconomic development, its implications for climate change and policy planning.

SUBMITTER: Chen S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8971473 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Updating global urbanization projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Chen Shiyin S Huang Qingxu Q Muttarak Raya R Fang Jiayi J Liu Tao T He Chunyang C Liu Ziwen Z Zhu Lei L

Scientific data 20220331 1

Urbanization level is an important indicator of socioeconomic development, and projecting its dynamics is fundamental for studies related to global socioeconomic and climate change. This paper aims to update the projections of global urbanization from 2015 to 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways by using the logistic fitting model and iteratively identifying reference countries. Based on historical urbanization level database from the World Urbanization Prospects, projected urbanization ...[more]

PMID: 35361772

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Project description:The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability-under varying levels of socioeconomic development-and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

Project description:Assessing climate change impacts on local communities is an urgent task for national and subnational governments. The impact assessment requires socioeconomic scenarios, including a long-term outlook for demographic and economic indices. In Japan, the National Institute for Environmental Studies developed the Japan Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (JPNSSPs) and presented regional population scenarios corresponding to five different storylines. However, there exists no quantitative information about changes in local economies under the population scenarios. This study examines the economic activities in Japan's 47 prefectures using statistical models and calculates changes in the major economic indices (e.g., production, capital stock, and labor population) until 2100. The economic projection is based on ten socioeconomic scenarios generated from the JPNSSP population scenarios and original productivity scenarios. The economic projection results clearly show that Japan's population aging and decline have catastrophic impacts on national and subnational economies. Even in the most optimistic scenario, assuming a massive influx of immigrants and fast productivity growth, the GDP growth rate becomes negative in the 2090s. In the most pessimistic scenario, the GDP growth rate becomes negative in 2028 and continues to decline. As a result, Japan's GDP decreases to the level of the 1970s by 2100. The improvement of productivity cannot offset the GDP shrink caused by demographic changes. Furthermore, the population aging and decline accelerate the wealth concentration in urban areas. The Theil index, calculated using the economic projection results, shows increasing trends in all the scenarios. Tokyo's presence in Japan's economy will continue to increase throughout this century. Meanwhile, Kanagawa and Saitama, which belong to the top five prefectures in terms of economic production, may lose their positions. The Tohoku region, already suffering from population decline, will face severe economic stagnation. Our findings suggest that the depressing future is inevitable unless Japan overcomes the population aging and decline.

Dataset Information

Updating global urbanization projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Publications

Updating global urbanization projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

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