Recalibration Methods for Improved Clinical Utility of Risk Scores.

ABSTRACT:

Background

An established risk model may demonstrate miscalibration, meaning predicted risks do not accurately capture event rates. In some instances, investigators can identify and address the cause of miscalibration. In other circumstances, it may be appropriate to recalibrate the risk model. Existing recalibration methods do not account for settings in which the risk score will be used for risk-based clinical decision making.

Methods

We propose 2 new methods for risk model recalibration when the intended purpose of the risk model is to prescribe an intervention to high-risk individuals. Our measure of risk model clinical utility is standardized net benefit. The first method is a weighted strategy that prioritizes good calibration at or around the critical risk threshold.

SUBMITTER: Mishra A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8977399 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature