Correction: A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: PLOS NTDs Staff
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8979458 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Correction: A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20220404 4
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008422.]. ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe elimination programme for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India has seen great progress, with total cases decreasing by over 80% since 2010 and many blocks now reporting zero cases from year to year. Prompt diagnosis and treatment is critical to continue progress and avoid epidemics in the increasingly susceptible population. Short-term forecasts could be used to highlight anomalies in incidence and support health service logistics. The model which best fits the data is not necessarily most useful for prediction, yet little empirical work has been done to investigate the balance between fit and predictive performance.Methodology/principal findingsWe developed statistical models of monthly VL case counts at block level. By evaluating a set of randomly-generated models, we found that fit and one-month-ahead prediction were strongly correlated and that rolling updates to model parameters as data accrued were not crucial for accurate prediction. The final model incorporated auto-regression over four months, spatial correlation between neighbouring blocks, and seasonality. Ninety-four percent of 10-90% prediction intervals from this model captured the observed count during a 24-month test period. Comparison of one-, three- and four-month-ahead predictions from the final model fit demonstrated that a longer time horizon yielded only a small sacrifice in predictive power for the vast majority of blocks.Conclusions/significanceThe model developed is informed by routinely-collected surveillance data as it accumulates, and predictions are sufficiently accurate and precise to be useful. Such forecasts could, for example, be used to guide stock requirements for rapid diagnostic tests and drugs. More comprehensive data on factors thought to influence geographic variation in VL burden could be incorporated, and might better explain the heterogeneity between blocks and improve uniformity of predictive performance. Integration of the approach in the management of the VL programme would be an important step to ensuring continued successful control.
| S-EPMC7373294 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Historically, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Italy was constrained to Mediterranean areas. However, in the last 20 years, sand fly vectors and human cases of VL have been detected in northern Italy, traditionally classified as a cold area unsuitable for sand fly survival. We aim to study the spatio-temporal pattern and climatic determinants of VL incidence in Italy. National Hospital Discharge Register records were used to identify incident cases of VL between 2009 and 2016. Incident rates were computed for each year (N = 8) and for each province (N = 110). Data on mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were obtained from the ERA5-Land re-analysis. Age- and sex-standardized incidence rates were modeled with Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive Poisson models in relation to the meteo-climatic parameters. Statistical inference was based on Monte Carlo-Markov chains. We identified 1123 VL cases (incidence rate: 2.4 cases/1,000,000 person-years). The highest incidence rates were observed in southern Italy, even though some areas of northern Italy experienced high incidence rates. Overall, in the spatial analysis, VL incidence rates were positively associated with average air temperatures (β  for 1 °C increase in average mean average temperature: 0.14; 95% credible intervals (CrI): 0.01, 0.27) and inversely associated with average precipitation (β for 20 mm increase in average summer cumulative precipitation: -0.28, 95% CrI: -0.42, -0.13). In the spatio-temporal analysis, no association between VL cases and season-year specific temperature and precipitation anomalies was detected. Our findings indicate that VL is endemic in the whole Italian peninsula and that climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, might play a relevant role in shaping the geographical distribution of VL cases. These results support that climate change might affect leishmaniasis distribution in the future.
| S-EPMC9694427 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a disease caused by parasites, is controlled in most provinces in China, it is still a serious public health problem and remains fundamentally uncontrolled in some northwest provinces and autonomous regions. The objective of this study is to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of VL in Sichuan Province, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China from 2004 to 2018 and to identify the risk areas for VL transmission.MethodsSpatiotemporal models were applied to explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of VL and the association between VL and meteorological factors in western China from 2004 to 2018. Geographic information of patients from the National Diseases Reporting Information System operated by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was defined according to the address code from the surveillance data.ResultsDuring our study period, nearly 90% of cases occurred in some counties in three western regions (Sichuan Province, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region), and a significant spatial clustering pattern was observed. With our spatiotemporal model, the transmission risk, autoregressive risk and epidemic risk of these counties during our study period were also well predicted. The number of VL cases in three regions of western China concentrated on a few of counties. VL in Kashi Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is still serious prevalent, and integrated control measures must be taken in different endemic areas.ConclusionsThe number of VL cases in three regions of western China concentrated on a few of counties. VL in Kashi Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is still serious prevalent, and integrated control measures must be taken in different endemic areas. Our findings will strengthen the VL control programme in China.
| S-EPMC7713028 | biostudies-literature
Project description:With several decades of concerted control efforts, visceral leishmaniasis(VL) eradication had almost been achieved in China. However, VL cases continue to be detected in parts of western China recent years. Using data of reported cases, this study aimed to investigate the epidemiology and spatio⁃temporal distribution, of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL) in China between the years 2015 and 2019. Epidemiological data pertaining to patients with visceral leishmaniasis (VL) were collected in Gansu, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Shanxi, Henan and Hebei provinces between the years 2015 and 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to determine changes in the epidemic trend of MT-ZVL within the time period during which data was collected. Spatial autocorrelation of infection was examined using the Global Moran's I statistic wand hotspot analysis was carried out using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Spatio-temporal clustering analysis was conducted using the retrospective space-time permutation flexible spatial scanning statistics. A total of 529 cases of MT-ZVL were detected in the six provinces from which data were collected during the study time period, predominantly in Gansu (55.0%), Shanxi (21.7%), Shaanxi (12.5%) and Sichuan (8.9%) provinces. A decline in VL incidence in China was observed during the study period, whereas an increase in MT-ZVL incidence was observed in the six provinces from which data was obtained (t = 4.87, P < 0.05), with highest incidence in Shanxi province (t = 16.91, P < 0.05). Significant differences in the Moran's I statistic were observed during study time period (P < 0.05), indicating spatial autocorrelation in the spatial distribution of MT-ZVL. Hotspot and spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed clustering of infection cases in the Shaanxi-Shanxi border areas and in east of Shanxi province, where transmission increased rapidly over the study duration, as well as in well know high transmission areas in the south of Gansu province and the north of the Sichuan province. It indicates resurgence of MT-ZVL transmission over the latter three years of the study. Spatial clustering of infection was observed in localized areas, as well as sporadic outbreaks of infection.
| S-EPMC8016304 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected vector-borne disease associated with socioeconomic and environmental issues. In Brazil, epidemics of VL have occurred in major cities since 1980. Applied models for medical and epidemiological research have been used to assess the distribution and characteristics of disease endpoints and identify and characterize potential risk factors. This study described the demographic features of VL and modeled the spatio-temporal distribution of human VL cases and their relationship with underlying predicitve factors using generalized additive models. We conducted an ecological study covering an 18-year period from the first report of an autochthonous case of VL in Campo Grande, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, in 2001 to 2018. The urban area of the city has 74 neighborhoods, and they were the units of analysis of our work. Socioeconomic and demographic data available from Brazilian public databases were considered as covariables. A total of 1,855 VL cases were reported during the study period, with an annual mean incidence rate of 13.23 cases per 100,000 population and a cumulative crude incidence of 235.77 per 100,000 population. The results showed the rapid transition from epidemic to endemic and the centrifugal dispersal pattern of the disease. Moreover, the model highlighted that the urban quality of life index, which is calculated based on income, education, housing conditions, and environmental sanitation data, plays a role in VL occurrence. Our findings highlighted the potential for improving spatio-temporal segmentation of control measures and the cost-effectiveness of integrated disease management programs as soon as VL is difficult to control and prevent and has rapid geographical dispersion and increased incidence rates.
| S-EPMC7531797 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The present study investigates the possible association between major air pollutants and COVID-19. We hypothesized that the post-lockdown surge in air pollution is the major cause of the increment in COVID-19 cases and deaths. The statistical results showed that pollutant concentrations of PM2.5 (20%), PM10(24%), SO2 (12%), and O3 (19%) were raised. So, we attempted to quantify the relative risk due to all major air pollutants by fitting generalized additive models. The results suggest that the pollution concentration escalated the COVID-19 cases and deaths. The pooled study suggests that for every 10 μg/m3 increment in pollutant concentration, an increment of COVID-19 cases is observed for PM2.5 (3%), PM10 (1%), SO2 (7.7%), and O3 (10%). Similarly, there is an increment in COVID-19 deaths for PM2.5 (2.8%), PM10 (1%), SO2 (4.5%), and O3 (7.2%). The spatial maps of relative risk revealed the most vulnerable regions due to each pollutant, thus steering the policymakers to implement region-specific mitigation strategies. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41324-023-00512-6.
| S-EPMC10010960 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This SuperSeries is composed of the SubSeries listed below.
2019-08-05 | GSE125993 | GEO
Project description:BackgroundFew prospective data exist on incidence of post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) relapse after different treatment regimens.Methodology/principal findingsA Phase IV trial included 1761 VL patients treated between 2012-2014 with single dose AmBisome (SDA; N = 891), miltefosine-paromomycin (Milt-PM; n = 512), or AmBisome-miltefosine (AmB-Milt; n = 358). Follow-up for PKDL and VL relapse was scheduled for 6, 12 and 24 months after treatment, lasting until 2017. Patients with lesions consistent with PKDL were tested by rK39 rapid test, and if positive, underwent skin-snip sampling, smear microscopy and PCR. Probable PKDL was defined by consistent lesions and positive rK39; confirmed PKDL required additional positive microscopy or PCR. PKDL and relapse incidence density were calculated by VL treatment and risk factors evaluated in Cox proportional hazards models. Among 1,750 patients who completed treatment, 79 had relapse and 104 PKDL. Relapse incidence density was 1.58, 2.08 and 0.40 per 1000 person-months for SDA, AmB-Milt and Milt-PM, respectively. PKDL incidence density was 1.29, 1.45 and 2.65 per 1000 person-months for SDA, AmB-Milt and Milt-PM. In multivariable models, patients treated with Milt-PM had lower relapse but higher PKDL incidence than those treated with SDA; AmB-Milt rates were not significantly different from those for SDA. Children <12 years were at higher risk for both outcomes; females had a higher risk of PKDL but not relapse.Conclusions/significanceActive surveillance for PKDL and relapse, followed by timely treatment, is essential to sustain the achievements of VL elimination programs in the Indian sub-continent.
| S-EPMC7392342 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this study we set out to determine whole blood transcriptional profiles that might distinguish asymptomatic infection with Leishmania donovani from active disease, as well as to monitor the changes in transcriptional profiles that accompanied drug treatment. Amphotericin B provides improved therapy for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) caused by Leishmania donovani, with single dose liposomal-encapsulated Ambisome providing the best cure rates. The VL elimination program aims to reduce the incidence rate in the Indian subcontinent to <1/10,000 population/year. Ability to predict which asymptomatic individuals (e.g. anti-leishmanial IgG and/or Leishmania-specific modified Quantiferon positive) will progress to clinical VL would help in monitoring disease outbreaks. Here we examined whole blood transcriptional profiles associated with asymptomatic infection, active disease, and in treated cases. Two independent microarray experiments were performed, with analysis focussed primarily on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) concordant across both experiments. No DEGs were identified for IgG or Quantiferon positive asymptomatic groups compared to negative healthy endemic controls. We therefore concentrated on comparing concordant DEGs from active cases with all healthy controls, and in examining differences in the transcriptome following different regimens of drug treatment. In these comparisons 6 major themes emerged: (i) expression of genes and enrichment of gene sets associated with erythrocyte function in active cases; (ii) strong evidence for enrichment of gene sets involved in cell cycle in comparing active cases with healthy controls; (iii) identification of IFNG encoding interferon- as the major hub gene in concordant gene expression patterns across experiments comparing active cases with healthy controls or with treated cases; (iv) enrichment for interleukin signalling (IL-1/3/4/6/7/8) and a prominent role for CXCL10/9/11 and chemokine signalling pathways in comparing active cases with treated cases; (v) the novel identification of Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor signalling as a significant canonical pathway when comparing active cases with healthy controls, and to a lesser extent with treated cases; and (vi) global expression profiling support for more effective cure at day 30 post-treatment with a single dose of liposomal encapsulated amphotericin B compared to multi-dose non-liposomal amphotericin B treatment over 30 days.
2019-08-05 | GSE125992 | GEO
Project description:In this study we set out to determine whole blood transcriptional profiles that might distinguish asymptomatic infection with Leishmania donovani from active disease, as well as to monitor the changes in transcriptional profiles that accompanied drug treatment. Amphotericin B provides improved therapy for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) caused by Leishmania donovani, with single dose liposomal-encapsulated Ambisome providing the best cure rates. The VL elimination program aims to reduce the incidence rate in the Indian subcontinent to <1/10,000 population/year. Ability to predict which asymptomatic individuals (e.g. anti-leishmanial IgG and/or Leishmania-specific modified Quantiferon positive) will progress to clinical VL would help in monitoring disease outbreaks. Here we examined whole blood transcriptional profiles associated with asymptomatic infection, active disease, and in treated cases. Two independent microarray experiments were performed, with analysis focussed primarily on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) concordant across both experiments. No DEGs were identified for IgG or Quantiferon positive asymptomatic groups compared to negative healthy endemic controls. We therefore concentrated on comparing concordant DEGs from active cases with all healthy controls, and in examining differences in the transcriptome following different regimens of drug treatment. In these comparisons 6 major themes emerged: (i) expression of genes and enrichment of gene sets associated with erythrocyte function in active cases; (ii) strong evidence for enrichment of gene sets involved in cell cycle in comparing active cases with healthy controls; (iii) identification of IFNG encoding interferon- as the major hub gene in concordant gene expression patterns across experiments comparing active cases with healthy controls or with treated cases; (iv) enrichment for interleukin signalling (IL-1/3/4/6/7/8) and a prominent role for CXCL10/9/11 and chemokine signalling pathways in comparing active cases with treated cases; (v) the novel identification of Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor signalling as a significant canonical pathway when comparing active cases with healthy controls, and to a lesser extent with treated cases; and (vi) global expression profiling support for more effective cure at day 30 post-treatment with a single dose of liposomal encapsulated amphotericin B compared to multi-dose non-liposomal amphotericin B treatment over 30 days.
2019-08-05 | GSE125991 | GEO