A Monte Carlo analysis of false inference in spatial conflict event studies.

ABSTRACT: Spatial event data is heavily used in contemporary research on political violence. Such data are oftentimes mapped onto grid-cells or administrative regions to draw inference about the determinants of conflict intensity. This setup can identify geographic determinants of violence, but is also prone to methodological issues. Problems resulting from spatial aggregation and dependence have been raised in methodological studies, but are rarely accounted for in applied research. As a consequence, we know little about the empirical relevance of these general problems and the trustworthiness of a popular research design. We address these questions by simulating conflict events based on spatial covariates from seven high-profile conflicts. We find that standard designs fail to deliver reliable inf

SUBMITTER: Schutte S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8982878 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature