Estimating COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented by non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the impact of individual actions: A retrospective model-based analysis.

ABSTRACT: Simulation models from the early COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgency of applying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), but had limited empirical data. Here we use data from 2020-2021 to retrospectively model the impact of NPIs in Ontario, Canada. Our model represents age groups and census divisions in Ontario, and is parameterized with epidemiological, testing, demographic, travel, and mobility data. The model captures how individuals adopt NPIs in response to reported cases. We compare a scenario representing NPIs introduced within Ontario (closures of workplaces/schools, reopening of schools/workplaces with NPIs in place, individual-level NPI adherence) to counterfactual scenarios wherein alternative strategies (e.g. no closures, reliance on individual NPI adherence) are adopted

SUBMITTER: Fair KR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8985422 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature