Epidemiological analysis of varicella in Dalian from 2009 to 2019 and application of three kinds of model in prediction prevalence of varicella.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study described the epidemic characteristics of varicella in Dalian from 2009 to 2019, explored the fitting effect of Grey model first-order one variable( GM(1,1)), Markov model, and GM(1,1)-Markov model on varicella data, and found the best fitting method for this type of data, to better predict the incidence trend.

Methods

For this Cross-sectional study, this article was completed in 2020, and the data collection is up to 2019. Due to the global epidemic, the infectious disease data of Dalian in 2020 itself does not conform to the normal changes of varicella and is not included. The epidemiological characteristics of varicella from 2009 to 2019 were analyzed by epidemiological descriptive methods. Using the varicella prevalence data from 2009 to 2018, predic

SUBMITTER: Cheng T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8991558 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature