Incorporating global dynamics to improve the accuracy of disease models: Example of a COVID-19 SIR model.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics, such as stable endemic, disease-free equilibriums or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics can be significantly improved by including global effects of host movements in disease models. To demonstrate improved accuracy, we extended a standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model by incorporating the global dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. The extended SIR model assumes three possibilities for susceptible individuals traveling outside of their community: • They can return to the community without any exposure to the infection. • They can be exposed and develop symptoms after returning to the community. • They can be tested positively during

SUBMITTER: AlQadi H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8993010 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature