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Long-Term Persistence of Spike Protein Antibody and Predictive Modeling of Antibody Dynamics After Infection With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.


ABSTRACT:

Background

Antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been shown to neutralize the virus in vitro and prevent disease in animal challenge models on reexposure. However, the current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 humoral dynamics and longevity is conflicting.

Methods

The COVID-19 Staff Testing of Antibody Responses Study (Co-Stars) prospectively enrolled 3679 healthcare workers to comprehensively characterize the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S), receptor-binding domain, and nucleoprotein (N) antibodies in parallel. Participants screening seropositive had serial monthly serological testing for a maximum of 7 months with the Meso Scale Discovery Assay. Survival analysis determined the proportion of seroreversion, while 2 hierarchical gamma models predicted the upper and lower bounds of long-term antibody trajectory.

Results

A total of 1163 monthly samples were provided from 349 seropositive participants. At 200 days after symptoms, >95% of participants had detectable S antibodies, compared with 75% with detectable N antibodies. S antibody was predicted to remain detectable in 95% of participants until 465 days (95% confidence interval, 370-575 days) using a "continuous-decay" model and indefinitely using a "decay-to-plateau" model to account for antibody secretion by long-lived plasma cells. S-antibody titers were correlated strongly with surrogate neutralization in vitro (R2 = 0.72). N antibodies, however, decayed rapidly with a half-life of 60 days (95% confidence interval, 52-68 days).

Conclusions

The Co-Stars data presented here provide evidence for long-term persistence of neutralizing S antibodies. This has important implications for the duration of functional immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection. In contrast, the rapid decay of N antibodies must be considered in future seroprevalence studies and public health decision-making. This is the first study to establish a mathematical framework capable of predicting long-term humoral dynamics after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Clinical trials registration

NCT04380896.

SUBMITTER: Grandjean L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8994590 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Long-Term Persistence of Spike Protein Antibody and Predictive Modeling of Antibody Dynamics After Infection With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

Grandjean Louis L   Saso Anja A   Torres Ortiz Arturo A   Lam Tanya T   Hatcher James J   Thistlethwayte Rosie R   Harris Mark M   Best Timothy T   Johnson Marina M   Wagstaffe Helen H   Ralph Elizabeth E   Mai Annabelle A   Colijn Caroline C   Breuer Judith J   Buckland Matthew M   Gilmour Kimberly K   Goldblatt David D  

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 20220401 7


<h4>Background</h4>Antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been shown to neutralize the virus in vitro and prevent disease in animal challenge models on reexposure. However, the current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 humoral dynamics and longevity is conflicting.<h4>Methods</h4>The COVID-19 Staff Testing of Antibody Responses Study (Co-Stars) prospectively enrolled 3679 healthcare workers to comprehensively characterize the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 spike protei  ...[more]

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