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The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: This paper proposes a new foresight approach to estimate the impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand. The forecasting-based influence evaluation consists of four modules: decomposing hotel demand before an emergency, matching each decomposed component to a forecasting model, combining the predictions as the expected demand after the emergency, and estimating the impact by comparing actual demand against that predicted. The method is applied to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Macao's hotel industry. The empirical results show that: 1) the new approach accurately estimates COVID-19's impact on hotel demand; 2) the seasonal and industry development components contribute significantly to the estimate of expected demand; 3) COVID-19's impact is heterogeneous across hotel services.

SUBMITTER: He LY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9004257 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19.

He Ling-Yang LY Li Hui H Bi Jian-Wu JW Yang Jing-Jing JJ Zhou Qing Q

Annals of tourism research 20220412

This paper proposes a new foresight approach to estimate the impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand. The forecasting-based influence evaluation consists of four modules: decomposing hotel demand before an emergency, matching each decomposed component to a forecasting model, combining the predictions as the expected demand after the emergency, and estimating the impact by comparing actual demand against that predicted. The method is applied to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Macao' ...[more]

PMID: 35431371

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Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has impacted the provision of health services in all specialties. We aim to study the impact of COVID-19 on the utilization of pediatric hospital services including emergency department (ED) attendances, hospitalizations, diagnostic categories and resource utilization in Singapore.MethodsWe performed a retrospective review of ED attendances and hospital admissions among children < 18 years old from January 1st to August 8th 2020 in a major pediatric hospital in Singapore. Data were analyzed in the following time periods: Pre-lockdown (divided by the change in Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) level), during-lockdown and post-lockdown. We presented the data using proportions and percentage change in mean counts per day with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).ResultsWe attended to 58,367 children with a mean age of 5.1 years (standard deviation, SD 4.6). The mean ED attendance decreased by 331 children/day during lockdown compared to baseline (p < 0.001), attributed largely to a drop in respiratory (% change - 87.9, 95% CI - 89.3 to - 86.3, p < 0.001) and gastrointestinal infections (% change - 72.4, 95%CI - 75.9 to - 68.4, p < 0.001). Trauma-related diagnoses decreased at a slower rate across the same periods (% change - 40.0, 95%CI - 44.3 to - 35.3, p < 0.001). We saw 226 children with child abuse, with a greater proportion of total attendance seen post-lockdown (79, 0.6%) compared to baseline (36, 0.2%) (p < 0.001). In terms of ED resource utilization, there was a decrease in the overall mean number of procedures performed per day during the lockdown compared to baseline, driven largely by a reduction in blood investigations (% change - 73.9, 95%CI - 75.9 to - 71.7, p < 0.001).ConclusionsWe highlighted a significant decrease in infection-related presentations likely attributed to the lockdown and showed that the relative proportion of trauma-related attendances increased. By describing the impact of COVID-19 on health services, we report important trends that may provide guidance when planning resources for future pandemics.

Project description:BackgroundThe private versus public contribution to developing new health knowledge and interventions is deeply contentious. Proponents of commercial innovation highlight its role in late-stage clinical trials, regulatory approval, and widespread distribution. Proponents of public innovation point out the role of public institutions in forming the foundational knowledge undergirding downstream innovation. The rapidly evolving COVID-19 situation has brought with it uniquely proactive public involvement to characterize, treat, and prevent this novel health treat. How has this affected the share of research by industry and public institutions, particularly compared to the experience of previous pandemics, Ebola, H1N1 and Zika?MethodsUsing Embase, we categorized all publications for COVID-19, Ebola, H1N1 and Zika as having any author identified as affiliated with industry or not. We placed all disease areas on a common timeline of the number of days since the WHO had declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern with a six-month lookback window. We plotted the number and proportion of publications over time using a smoothing function and plotted a rolling 30-day cumulative sum to illustrate the variability in publication outputs over time.ResultsIndustry-affiliated articles represented 2% (1,773 articles) of publications over the 14 months observed for COVID-19, 7% (278 articles) over 7.1 years observed for Ebola, 5% (350 articles) over 12.4 years observed for H1N1, and 3% (160 articles) over the 5.7 years observed for Zika. The proportion of industry-affiliated publications built steadily over the time observed, eventually plateauing around 7.5% for Ebola, 5.5% for H1H1, and 3.5% for Zika. In contrast, COVID-19's proportion oscillated from 1.4% to above 2.7% and then declined again to 1.7%. At this point in the pandemic (i.e., 14 months since the PHEIC), the proportion of industry-affiliated articles had been higher for the other three disease areas; for example, the proportion for H1N1 was twice as high.ConclusionsWhile the industry-affiliated contribution to the biomedical literature for COVID is extraordinary in its absolute number, its proportional share is unprecedentedly low currently. Nevertheless, the world has witnessed one of the most remarkable mobilizations of the biomedical innovation ecosystem in history.

Dataset Information

The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19.

Publications

The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19.

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