Model-Based ROC Curve: Examining the Effect of Case Mix and Model Calibration on the ROC Plot.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The performance of risk prediction models is often characterized in terms of discrimination and calibration. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is widely used for evaluating model discrimination. However, when comparing ROC curves across different samples, the effect of case mix makes the interpretation of discrepancies difficult. Further, compared with model discrimination, evaluating model calibration has not received the same level of attention. Current methods for examining model calibration require specification of smoothing or grouping factors.

Methods

We introduce the "model-based" ROC curve (mROC) to assess model calibration and the effect of case mix during external validation. The mROC curve is the ROC curve that should be observed if the

SUBMITTER: Sadatsafavi M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9005838 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature