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Evaluating eligibility criteria of oncology trials using real-world data and AI.

ABSTRACT: There is a growing focus on making clinical trials more inclusive but the design of trial eligibility criteria remains challenging^1-3. Here we systematically evaluate the effect of different eligibility criteria on cancer trial populations and outcomes with real-world data using the computational framework of Trial Pathfinder. We apply Trial Pathfinder to emulate completed trials of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer using data from a nationwide database of electronic health records comprising 61,094 patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Our analyses reveal that many common criteria, including exclusions based on several laboratory values, had a minimal effect on the trial hazard ratios. When we used a data-driven approach to broaden restrictive criteria, the pool of eligible patients more than doubled on average and the hazard ratio of the overall survival decreased by an average of 0.05. This suggests that many patients who were not eligible under the original trial criteria could potentially benefit from the treatments. We further support our findings through analyses of other types of cancer and patient-safety data from diverse clinical trials. Our data-driven methodology for evaluating eligibility criteria can facilitate the design of more-inclusive trials while maintaining safeguards for patient safety.

SUBMITTER: Liu R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9007176 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluating eligibility criteria of oncology trials using real-world data and AI.

Liu Ruishan R Rizzo Shemra S Whipple Samuel S Pal Navdeep N Pineda Arturo Lopez AL Lu Michael M Arnieri Brandon B Lu Ying Y Capra William W Copping Ryan R Zou James J

Nature 20210407 7855

There is a growing focus on making clinical trials more inclusive but the design of trial eligibility criteria remains challenging<sup>1-3</sup>. Here we systematically evaluate the effect of different eligibility criteria on cancer trial populations and outcomes with real-world data using the computational framework of Trial Pathfinder. We apply Trial Pathfinder to emulate completed trials of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer using data from a nationwide database of electronic health records ...[more]

PMID: 33828294

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Project description:BackgroundEven though clinical trials are indispensable for medical research, they are frequently impaired by delayed or incomplete patient recruitment, resulting in cost overruns or aborted studies. Study protocols based on real-world data with precisely expressed eligibility criteria and realistic cohort estimations are crucial for successful study execution. The increasing availability of routine clinical data in electronic health records (EHRs) provides the opportunity to also support patient recruitment during the prescreening phase. While solutions for electronic recruitment support have been published, to our knowledge, no method for the prioritization of eligibility criteria in this context has been explored.MethodsIn the context of the Electronic Health Records for Clinical Research (EHR4CR) project, we examined the eligibility criteria of the KATHERINE trial. Criteria were extracted from the study protocol, deduplicated, and decomposed. A paper chart review and data warehouse query were executed to retrieve clinical data for the resulting set of simplified criteria separately from both sources. Criteria were scored according to disease specificity, data availability, and discriminatory power based on their content and the clinical dataset.ResultsThe study protocol contained 35 eligibility criteria, which after simplification yielded 70 atomic criteria. For a cohort of 106 patients with breast cancer and neoadjuvant treatment, 47.9% of data elements were captured through paper chart review, with the data warehouse query yielding 26.9% of data elements. Score application resulted in a prioritized subset of 17 criteria, which yielded a sensitivity of 1.00 and specificity 0.57 on EHR data (paper charts, 1.00 and 0.80) compared with actual recruitment in the trial.ConclusionIt is possible to prioritize clinical trial eligibility criteria based on real-world data to optimize prescreening of patients on a selected subset of relevant and available criteria and reduce implementation efforts for recruitment support. The performance could be further improved by increasing EHR data coverage.

Project description:Overly restrictive eligibility criteria for clinical trials may limit the generalizability of the trial results to their target real-world patient populations. We developed a novel machine learning approach using large collections of real-world data (RWD) to better inform clinical trial eligibility criteria design. We extracted patients' clinical events from electronic health records (EHRs), which include demographics, diagnoses, and drugs, and assumed certain compositions of these clinical events within an individual's EHRs can determine the subphenotypes-homogeneous clusters of patients, where patients within each subgroup share similar clinical characteristics. We introduced an outcome-guided probabilistic model to identify those subphenotypes, such that the patients within the same subgroup not only share similar clinical characteristics but also at similar risk levels of encountering severe adverse events (SAEs). We evaluated our algorithm on two previously conducted clinical trials with EHRs from the OneFlorida+ Clinical Research Consortium. Our model can clearly identify the patient subgroups who are more likely to suffer or not suffer from SAEs as subphenotypes in a transparent and interpretable way. Our approach identified a set of clinical topics and derived novel patient representations based on them. Each clinical topic represents a certain clinical event composition pattern learned from the patient EHRs. Tested on both trials, patient subgroup (#SAE=0) and patient subgroup (#SAE>0) can be well-separated by k-means clustering using the inferred topics. The inferred topics characterized as likely to align with the patient subgroup (#SAE>0) revealed meaningful combinations of clinical features and can provide data-driven recommendations for refining the exclusion criteria of clinical trials. The proposed supervised topic modeling approach can infer the clinical topics from the subphenotypes with or without SAEs. The potential rules for describing the patient subgroups with SAEs can be further derived to inform the design of clinical trial eligibility criteria.

Project description:PurposeUsing real-world data (RWD)-based trial simulation approach, we aim to simulate colorectal cancer (CRC) trials and examine both effectiveness and safety end points in different simulation scenarios.MethodsWe identified five phase III trials comparing new treatment regimens with an US Food and Drug Administration-approved first-line treatment in patients with metastatic CRC (ie, fluorouracil, leucovorin, and irinotecan) as the standard-of-care (SOC) control arm. Using Electronic Health Record-derived data from the OneFlorida network, we defined the study populations and outcome measures using the protocols from the original trials. Our design scenarios were (1) simulation of the SOC fluorouracil, leucovorin, and irinotecan arm and (2) comparative effectiveness research (CER) simulation of the control and experimental arms. For each scenario, we adjusted for random assignment, sampling, and dropout. We used overall survival (OS) and severe adverse events (SAEs) to measure effectiveness and safety.ResultsWe conducted CER simulations for two trials, and SOC simulations for three trials. The effect sizes of our simulated trials were stable across all simulation runs. Compared with the original trials, we observed longer OS and higher mean number of SAEs in both CER and SOC simulation. In the two CER simulations, hazard ratios associated with death from simulations were similar to that reported in the original trials. Consistent with the original trials, we found higher risk ratios of SAEs in the experiment arm, suggesting potentially higher toxicities from the new treatment regimen. We also observed similar SAE rates across all simulations compared with the original trials.ConclusionIn this study, we simulated five CRC trials, and tested two simulation scenarios with several different configurations demonstrated that our simulations can robustly generate effectiveness and safety outcomes comparable with the original trials using real-world data.

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Evaluating eligibility criteria of oncology trials using real-world data and AI.

Publications

Evaluating eligibility criteria of oncology trials using real-world data and AI.

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