Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: A counterfactual modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced one of the highest per-capita death tolls worldwide. It is debated whether this may partly be explained by the relatively late initiation of voluntary social distancing and mandatory lockdown measures. In this study, we used simulations to estimate the number of cases and deaths that would have occurred in England by 1 June 2020 if these interventions had been implemented one or two weeks earlier, and the impact on the required duration of lockdown.

Methods

Using official reported data on the number of Pillar 1 lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 and associated deaths occurring in England from 3 March to 1 June, we modelled: the natural (i.e. observed) growth of cases, and the counterfactua

SUBMITTER: Arnold KF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9009677 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature