Dataset Information

Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality.

Approach and results

We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short- and long-term effect of increased drinking during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012. We modeled short- and long-term outcomes of current drinking patterns during COVID-19 (status quo) using survey data of changes in alcohol consumption in a nationally representative sample between February and November 2020. We compared these outcomes with a counterfactual scenario wherein no COVID-19 occurs and drinking patterns do not change. One-year increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to result in 8000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7500-8600) additional ALD-related deaths, 18,700 (95% UI, 17,600-19,900) cases of decompensated cirrhosis, and 1000 (95% UI, 1000-1100) cases of HCC, and 8.9 million disability-adjusted life years between 2020 and 2040. Between 2020 and 2023, alcohol consumption changes due to COVID-19 will lead to 100 (100-200) additional deaths and 2800 (2700-2900) additional decompensated cirrhosis cases. A sustained increase in alcohol consumption for more than 1 year could result in additional morbidity and mortality.

Conclusions

A short-term increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic can substantially increase long-term ALD-related morbidity and mortality. Our findings highlight the need for individuals and policymakers to make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of high-risk alcohol drinking in the United States.

SUBMITTER: Julien J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9015640 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study.

Julien Jovan J Ayer Turgay T Tapper Elliot B EB Barbosa Carolina C Dowd William N WN Chhatwal Jagpreet J

Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) 20220124 6

<h4>Background and aims</h4>Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality.<h4>Approach and results</h4>We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short- and long-term effect of increased drinking during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012. We modeled short- and ...[more]

PMID: 34878683

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Project description:AimsTo explore changes in alcohol purchase and consumption during the first few months of the Covid-19 pandemic, and assess associations between increased alcohol purchase/use and socioeconomic and environmental factors.DesignSecondary data from a cross-sectional online survey conducted from 17 April to 25 June 2020.SettingThirty-eight countries from all continents of the world.ParticipantsA total of 37,206 adults (mean age:36.7, SD:14.8, 77% female) reporting alcohol purchasing and drinking habit before and during the pandemic.MeasurementsChanges in alcohol stock-up and frequency of alcohol use during the pandemic and increased alcohol stock-up and use were stratified by gender, age, education, household structure, working status, income loss, psychological distress, and country based on alcohol consumption per capita. The associations between increased alcohol stock-up/use and living with children, working from home, income loss and distress were examined using multivariate logistic regression, controlling for demographic factors.FindingsThe majority of respondents reported no change in their alcohol purchasing and drinking habits during the early pandemic period. Increased drinking was reported by 20.2% of respondents, while 17.6% reported decreased alcohol use. More than half (53.3%) of respondents experienced psychological distress, with one in five (20.7%) having severe distress. Female gender, being aged under 50, higher educational attainment, living with children, working from home, and psychological distress were all independently associated with increased alcohol drinking during lockdown. Limitations of the study were the non-representative sample, the data collection early in the pandemic, and the non-standard measurement of alcohol consumption.ConclusionIncreased psychological distress among people during the early pandemic period, resulted in increased alcohol consumption, especially among women with children working from home during lockdown.

Project description:ImportanceAlcohol consumption (AC) leads to death and disability worldwide. Ongoing discussions on potential negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on AC need to be informed by real-world evidence.ObjectiveTo examine whether lockdown measures are associated with AC and consumption-related temporal and psychological within-person mechanisms.Design, setting, and participantsThis quantitative, intensive, longitudinal cohort study recruited 1743 participants from 3 sites from February 20, 2020, to February 28, 2021. Data were provided before and within the second lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: before lockdown (October 2 to November 1, 2020); light lockdown (November 2 to December 15, 2020); and hard lockdown (December 16, 2020, to February 28, 2021).Main outcomes and measuresDaily ratings of AC (main outcome) captured during 3 lockdown phases (main variable) and temporal (weekends and holidays) and psychological (social isolation and drinking intention) correlates.ResultsOf the 1743 screened participants, 189 (119 [63.0%] male; median [IQR] age, 37 [27.5-52.0] years) with at least 2 alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) yet without the need for medically supervised alcohol withdrawal were included. These individuals provided 14 694 smartphone ratings from October 2020 through February 2021. Multilevel modeling revealed significantly higher AC (grams of alcohol per day) on weekend days vs weekdays (β = 11.39; 95% CI, 10.00-12.77; P < .001). Alcohol consumption was above the overall average on Christmas (β = 26.82; 95% CI, 21.87-31.77; P < .001) and New Year's Eve (β = 66.88; 95% CI, 59.22-74.54; P < .001). During the hard lockdown, perceived social isolation was significantly higher (β = 0.12; 95% CI, 0.06-0.15; P < .001), but AC was significantly lower (β = -5.45; 95% CI, -8.00 to -2.90; P = .001). Independent of lockdown, intention to drink less alcohol was associated with lower AC (β = -11.10; 95% CI, -13.63 to -8.58; P < .001). Notably, differences in AC between weekend and weekdays decreased both during the hard lockdown (β = -6.14; 95% CI, -9.96 to -2.31; P = .002) and in participants with severe AUD (β = -6.26; 95% CI, -10.18 to -2.34; P = .002).Conclusions and relevanceThis 5-month cohort study found no immediate negative associations of lockdown measures with overall AC. Rather, weekend-weekday and holiday AC patterns exceeded lockdown effects. Differences in AC between weekend days and weekdays evinced that weekend drinking cycles decreased as a function of AUD severity and lockdown measures, indicating a potential mechanism of losing and regaining control. This finding suggests that temporal patterns and drinking intention constitute promising targets for prevention and intervention, even in high-risk individuals.

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Dataset Information

Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study.

Background and aims

Approach and results

Conclusions

Publications

Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study.

Similar Datasets

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