Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks.

ABSTRACT: Considerable uncertainty and debate exist in projecting the future capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO₂. Here we estimate spatially explicit patterns of biomass loss by tree mortality (LOSS) from largely unmanaged forest plots to constrain projected (2015-2099) net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (HR) and net carbon sink in six dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) across continents. This approach relies on a strong relationship among LOSS, NPP, and HR at continental or biome scales. The DGVMs overestimated historical LOSS, particularly in tropical regions and eastern North America by as much as 5 Mg ha^-1 y^-1. The modeled spread of DGVM-projected NPP and HR uncertainties was substantially reduced in tropical regions afte

SUBMITTER: Yu K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9018757 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature