Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation.

Methods

We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accou

SUBMITTER: Refisch L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9019290 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature