Dataset Information

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves.

ABSTRACT: Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-periods of exceptionally warm ocean temperature lasting weeks to years-are now widely recognized for their capacity to disrupt marine ecosystems^1-3. The substantial ecological and socioeconomic impacts of these extreme events present significant challenges to marine resource managers^4-7, who would benefit from forewarning of MHWs to facilitate proactive decision-making^8-11. However, despite extensive research into the physical drivers of MHWs^11,12, there has been no comprehensive global assessment of our ability to predict these events. Here we use a large multimodel ensemble of global climate forecasts^13,14 to develop and assess MHW forecasts that cover the world's oceans with lead times of up to a year. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts, we show that the onset, intensity and duration of MHWs are often predictable, with skilful forecasts possible from 1 to 12 months in advance depending on region, season and the state of large-scale climate modes, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We discuss considerations for setting decision thresholds based on the probability that a MHW will occur, empowering stakeholders to take appropriate actions based on their risk profile. These results highlight the potential for operational MHW forecasts, analogous to forecasts of extreme weather phenomena, to promote climate resilience in global marine ecosystems.

SUBMITTER: Jacox MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9021020 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves.

Jacox Michael G MG Alexander Michael A MA Amaya Dillon D Becker Emily E Bograd Steven J SJ Brodie Stephanie S Hazen Elliott L EL Pozo Buil Mercedes M Tommasi Desiree D

Nature 20220420 7906

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-periods of exceptionally warm ocean temperature lasting weeks to years-are now widely recognized for their capacity to disrupt marine ecosystems1-3. The substantial ecological and socioeconomic impacts of these extreme events present significant challenges to marine resource managers4-7, who would benefit from forewarning of MHWs to facilitate proactive decision-making8-11. However, despite extensive research into the physical drivers of M ...[more]

PMID: 35444322

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Project description:Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, can have larger impacts on marine ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over the period 1982–2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or about one out of five present-day MHW months) are compound MHW-OAX event months under a present-day baseline, almost twice as many as expected for 90th percentile extreme event exceedances if MHWs and OAX events were statistically independent. Compound MHW-OAX events are most likely in the subtropics (2.7 in 100 months; 10°−40° latitude) and less likely in the equatorial Pacific and the mid-to-high latitudes (0.7 in 100 months; >40° latitude). The likelihood pattern results from opposing effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon on [H+]. The likelihood is higher where the positive effect on [H+] from increased temperatures during MHWs outweighs the negative effect on [H+] from co-occurring decreases in dissolved inorganic carbon. Daily model output from a large-ensemble simulation of an Earth system model is analyzed to assess changes in the MHW-OAX likelihood under climate change. The projected long-term mean warming and acidification trends have the largest effect on the number of MHW-OAX days per year, increasing it from 12 to 265 days per year at 2 °C global warming relative to a fixed pre-industrial baseline. Even when long-term trends are removed, an increase in [H+] variability leads to a 60% increase in the number of MHW-OAX days under 2 °C global warming. These projected increases may cause severe impacts on marine ecosystems. Compound extreme events in two or more oceanic ecosystem stressors are increasingly considered as a major concern for marine life. Here the authors present a first global analysis on compound marine heatwave and ocean acidity extreme events, identifying hotspots, drivers, and projecting future changes.

Dataset Information

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves.

Publications

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves.

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