Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves.

ABSTRACT: Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-periods of exceptionally warm ocean temperature lasting weeks to years-are now widely recognized for their capacity to disrupt marine ecosystems^1-3. The substantial ecological and socioeconomic impacts of these extreme events present significant challenges to marine resource managers^4-7, who would benefit from forewarning of MHWs to facilitate proactive decision-making^8-11. However, despite extensive research into the physical drivers of MHWs^11,12, there has been no comprehensive global assessment of our ability to predict these events. Here we use a large multimodel ensemble of global climate forecasts^13,14 to develop and assess MHW forecasts that cover the world's oceans with lead times of up to a year. Using

SUBMITTER: Jacox MG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9021020 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature