Evaluating the effectiveness of Hong Kong's border restriction policy in reducing COVID-19 infections.

ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the effectiveness of Hong Kong's strict border restrictions with mainland China in curbing the transmission of COVID-19. Combining big data from Baidu Population Migration with traditional meteorological data and census data for over 200 Chinese cities, we utilize an advanced quantitative approach, namely synthetic control modeling, to produce a counterfactual "synthetic Hong Kong" without a strict border restriction policy. We then simulate infection trends under the hypothetical scenarios and compare them to actual infection numbers. Our counterfactual synthetic control model demonstrates a lower number of COVID-19 infections than the actual scenario, where strict border restrictions with mainland China were implemented from February 8 to March 6, 2020. Moreover, the

SUBMITTER: Zhu P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9023047 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature