Human judgement forecasting tournaments: A feasibility study based on the COVID-19 pandemic with public health practitioners in England.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To explore the viability of running human judgement forecasting tournaments with public health practitioners, and to gather initial data on forecasting accuracy and participant perceptions of forecasting.

Study design

Quality improvement study comprising two COVID-19 forecasting tournaments using Brier Skill Score scoring and a follow-up participant questionnaire.

Methods

Over two forecasting tournaments, public health registrars in the East Midlands, UK, assigned probabilities to future possible binary events relating to COVID-19. Participants also completed a questionnaire on their experiences of forecasting.

Results

There were 17 participants in the first tournament and nine in the second tournament, with no new participants. In both tournaments,

SUBMITTER: Davies N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9023363 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature