Short-Term and Long-Term COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting Revisited with the Emergence of OMICRON Variant in Jordan.

ABSTRACT: Three simple approaches to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic in Jordan were previously proposed by Hussein, et al.: a short-term forecast (STF) based on a linear forecast model with a learning database on the reported cases in the previous 5-40 days, a long-term forecast (LTF) based on a mathematical formula that describes the COVID-19 pandemic situation, and a hybrid forecast (HF), which merges the STF and the LTF models. With the emergence of the OMICRON variant, the LTF failed to forecast the pandemic due to vital reasons related to the infection rate and the speed of the OMICRON variant, which is faster than the previous variants. However, the STF remained suitable for the sudden changes in epi curves because these simple models learn for the previous data of reported cases. In this study

SUBMITTER: Hussein T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9025683 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature