Assessing the Transmissibility of the New SARS-CoV-2 Variants: From Delta to Omicron.

ABSTRACT: Omicron, the latest SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC), first appeared in Africa in November 2021. At present, the question of whether a new VOC will out-compete the currently predominant variant is important for governments seeking to determine if current surveillance strategies and responses are appropriate and reasonable. Based on both virus genomes and daily-confirmed cases, we compare the additive differences in growth rates and reproductive numbers (R0) between VOCs and their predominant variants through a Bayesian framework and phylo-dynamics analysis. Faced with different variants, we evaluate the effects of current policies and vaccinations against VOCs and predominant variants. The model also predicts the date on which a VOC may become dominant based on simulation and real data

SUBMITTER: Dong R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9026126 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature