Model-based extrapolation of ecological systems under future climate scenarios: The example of Ixodes ricinus ticks.

ABSTRACT: Models can be applied to extrapolate consequences of climate change for complex ecological systems in the future. The acknowledged systems' behaviour at present is projected into the future considering climate projection data. Such an approach can be used to addresses the future activity and density of the castor bean tick Ixodes ricinus, the most widespread tick species in Europe. It is an important vector of pathogens causing Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. The population dynamics depend on several biotic and abiotic factors. Such complexity makes it difficult to predict the future dynamics and density of I. ricinus and associated health risk for humans. The objective of this study is to force ecological models with high-resolution climate projection data to extrapolate I.

SUBMITTER: Nolzen H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9032420 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature