Dataset Information

Road traffic casualties in Great Britain at daylight savings time transitions: a causal regression discontinuity design analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To determine whether daylight savings time (DST) transitions have an effect on road traffic casualties in Great Britain using causal regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis. We undertake aggregate and disaggregate spatial and temporal analyses to test the commonly referenced sleep and light hypotheses.

Design

The study takes the form of a natural experiment in which the DST transitions are interventions to be evaluated. Two outcomes are tested: (1) the total number of casualties of all severities and (2) the number of fatalities.

Data

Data were obtained from the UK Department for Transport STATS19 database. Over a period of 14 years between 2005 and 2018, 311 766 total casualties and 5429 fatalities occurred 3 weeks on either side of the Spring DST transition and 367 291 total casualties and 6650 fatalities occurred 3 weeks on either side of the Autumn DST transition.

Primary outcome measure

An RDD method was applied. The presence of a causal effect was determined via the degree of statistical significance and the magnitude of the average treatment effect.

Results

All significant average treatment effects are negative (54 significant models out of 287 estimated), indicating that there are fewer casualties following the transitions. Overall, bootstrapped summary statistics indicate a reduction of 0.75 in the number of fatalities (95% CI -1.61 to -0.04) and a reduction of 4.73 in the number of total casualties (95% CI -6.08 to -3.27) on average per year at both the Spring and Autumn DST transitions combined.

Conclusions

The results indicate minor reductions in the number of fatalities following the DST transitions, and thus, our analysis does not support the most recent UK parliamentary estimate that there would be 30 fewer fatalities in Great Britain if DST was to be abolished. Furthermore, the results do not provide conclusive support for either the sleep or light hypotheses.

SUBMITTER: Singh R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9039378 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Road traffic casualties in Great Britain at daylight savings time transitions: a causal regression discontinuity design analysis.

Singh Ramandeep R Singh Ramandeep R Sood Rohan R Graham Daniel J DJ

BMJ open 20220425 4

<h4>Objective</h4>To determine whether daylight savings time (DST) transitions have an effect on road traffic casualties in Great Britain using causal regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis. We undertake aggregate and disaggregate spatial and temporal analyses to test the commonly referenced sleep and light hypotheses.<h4>Design</h4>The study takes the form of a natural experiment in which the DST transitions are interventions to be evaluated. Two outcomes are tested: (1) the total numbe ...[more]

PMID: 35470186

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Project description:BackgroundRoad traffic safety has considerably improved in China. However, the changes may differ in the economically backward and altitude higher western region. This study aims to investigate changes in the occurrence and severity of traffic casualties in western China and illuminate several key causal factors.Materials and methodsTraffic accident data from the Annual Traffic Accident Statistics Report combined with population and vehicle data from the China Statistics Bureau between 2009 and 2019, were retrospectively analyzed. Traffic accident numbers, fatalities, human injury (HI), case fatality rates (CFR), mortality per 100,000 population (MRP), and mortality per 10,000 vehicles (MRV) were compared between the western and eastern regions. The HI, CFR, MRV, and MRP between the four groups based on the altitude of cities, below 500 meters, 500 to 1,500 meters, 1,500 to 3,000 meters, and over 3,000 meters, were compared using one-way analysis of variance. One hundred and seventy-eight cases of extremely serious traffic accidents were further analyzed in terms of accident occurrence time, vehicle type, road grade, road shape, accident pattern, and accident reason. The differences of accident characteristics between the eastern and western regions were compared using the chi-square test.ResultsThe number of traffic accidents and fatalities decreased in low-altitude areas in western China. However, there was a significant increasing trend in the high altitude area. The HI, CFR, MRV, and MRP were higher in the western region than that in the eastern and national. Those accident indicators tended to increase with increasing altitude. And there were statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) among groups from different altitudes. Chi-square test results show that there are statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) in term of road grade, road shape, accident pattern between eastern and western. Low-grade roads, combined curved and sloping roads, and rollover were significant features associated with traffic accidents in the western region. Bad roads were the main cause of rollover accidents in western China, which will lead to more serious casualties. Over speeding, overloading, bad weather, vehicle failure, and driver error were the top five accident causes.ConclusionTraffic accidents are increasing in high-altitude areas of western China, and they lead to more severe casualties. The characteristics of serious traffic accidents in this part of the country differ from those of the eastern regions. Improving road safety facilities, restrictions of speed, and improving medical treatment at accident scenes may be effective measures to reduce traffic accidents related injuries in the western region.

Dataset Information

Road traffic casualties in Great Britain at daylight savings time transitions: a causal regression discontinuity design analysis.

Objective

Design

Data

Primary outcome measure

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Road traffic casualties in Great Britain at daylight savings time transitions: a causal regression discontinuity design analysis.

Similar Datasets

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