Estimating the COVID-19 mortality burden over two full years of the pandemic in Malaysia.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tan L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9042593 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Estimating the COVID-19 mortality burden over two full years of the pandemic in Malaysia.
Tan LeeAnn L Ganapathy Shubash Shander SS Chan Yee Mang YM Alias Nazirah N Nasaruddin Nur Hamizah NH Khaw Wan-Fei WF Omar Azahadi A
The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific 20220427
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Project description:Malaysia has reported 2.75 million cases and 31,485 deaths as of 30 December 2021. Underestimation remains an issue due to the underdiagnosis of mild and asymptomatic cases. We aimed to estimate the burden of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia based on an adjusted case fatality rate (aCFR). Data on reported cases and mortalities were collated from the Ministry of Health official GitHub between 1 March 2020 and 30 December 2021. We estimated the total and age-stratified monthly incidence rates, mortality rates, and aCFR. Estimated new infections were inferred from the age-stratified aCFR. The total estimated infections between 1 March 2020 and 30 December 2021 was 9,955,000-cases (95% CI: 6,626,000-18,985,000). The proportion of COVID-19 infections in ages 0-11, 12-17, 18-50, 51-65, and above 65 years were 19.9% (n = 1,982,000), 2.4% (n = 236,000), 66.1% (n = 6,577,000), 9.1% (n = 901,000), 2.6% (n = 256,000), respectively. Approximately 32.8% of the total population in Malaysia was estimated to have been infected with COVID-19 by the end of December 2021. These estimations highlight a more accurate infection burden in Malaysia. It provides the first national-level prevalence estimates in Malaysia that adjusted for underdiagnosis. Naturally acquired community immunity has increased, but approximately 68.1% of the population remains susceptible. Population estimates of the infection burden are critical to determine the need for booster doses and calibration of public health measures.
| S-EPMC9642899 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe dynamic COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with mental strain. However, most studies focused primarily on the beginning of the pandemic and rarely took into account the long-term course. The aim of this prospective-longitudinal study was to investigate levels and changes of pandemic-related fears, unspecific anxiety, depressive symptoms, and psychosocial-behavioral factors over the first 1.5 years of the pandemic.MethodsWe conducted a nine-wave longitudinal online-survey from March 2020 to October 2021 with a total of 8148 participants of the adult general population in Germany. Descriptive examination and multilevel analysis were carried out to assess psychological burden, risk-bearing and protective psychosocial-behavioral factors, and associations with sociodemographics and the pandemic's duration and severity over the course of the pandemic.ResultsSymptoms of mental strain fluctuated across the pandemic and displayed a relative maximum at the pandemic's early beginning and during the second and third COVID-19 waves. Most participants (approximately 67.4 %-82.1 %) reported mild and transient symptoms, but a substantial portion (approximately 17.9 %-32.6 %) experienced pronounced mental health problems during the pandemic. Symptom severity was negatively associated with the duration of the pandemic and positively associated with the rate of new infections.LimitationsThe observational study design, non-probability-sampling methods, and online self-report assessments limit the generalizability of our results.ConclusionsThe fluctuating course of psychological burden during the pandemic emphasizes the relevance of continuous monitoring during this challenging time. Particularly individuals with pronounced subclinical symptoms or manifesting mental disorders should be targeted with adequate prevention and early intervention programs.
| S-EPMC9507788 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Estimating rates of COVID-19 infection and associated mortality is challenging due to uncertainties in case ascertainment. We perform a counterfactual time series analysis on overall mortality data from towns in Italy, comparing the population mortality in 2020 with previous years, to estimate mortality from COVID-19. We find that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy in 2020 until September 9 was 59,000-62,000, compared to the official number of 36,000. The proportion of the population that died was 0.29% in the most affected region, Lombardia, and 0.57% in the most affected province, Bergamo. Combining reported test positive rates from Italy with estimates of infection fatality rates from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, we estimate the infection rate as 29% (95% confidence interval 15-52%) in Lombardy, and 72% (95% confidence interval 36-100%) in Bergamo.
| S-EPMC8115692 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly transmissible and virulent human-infecting coronavirus that emerged in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, causing a respiratory disease called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has massively impacted global public health and caused widespread disruption to daily life. The crisis caused by COVID-19 has mobilized scientists and public health authorities across the world to rapidly improve our knowledge about this devastating disease, shedding light on its management and control, and spawned the development of new countermeasures. Here we provide an overview of the state of the art of knowledge gained in the last 2 years about the virus and COVID-19, including its origin and natural reservoir hosts, viral etiology, epidemiology, modes of transmission, clinical manifestations, pathophysiology, diagnosis, treatment, prevention, emerging variants, and vaccines, highlighting important differences from previously known highly pathogenic coronaviruses. We also discuss selected key discoveries from each topic and underline the gaps of knowledge for future investigations.
| S-EPMC9380879 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Excess mortalities are a more accurate indicator of true COVID-19 disease burden. This study aims to investigate levels of excess all-cause mortality and their geographic, age and sex distributions between January 2020-September 2021. National mortality data between January 2016 and September 2021 from the Department of Statistics Malaysia was utilised. Baseline mortality was estimated using the Farrington algorithm and data between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2019. The occurrence of excess all-cause mortality by geographic-, age- and sex-stratum was examined from 1 January 2020 to 30 September 2021. A sub-analysis was also conducted for road-traffic accidents, ethnicity and nationality. Malaysia had a 5.5-23.7% reduction in all-cause mortality across 2020. A reversal is observed in 2021, with an excess of 13.0-24.0%. Excess mortality density is highest between July and September 2021. All states and sexes reported excess trends consistent with the national trends. There were reductions in all all-cause mortalities in individuals under the age of 15 (0.4-8.1%) and road traffic accident-related mortalities (36.6-80.5%). These reductions were higher during the first Movement Control Order in 2020. Overall, there appears to be a reduction in all-cause mortality for Malaysia in 2020. This trend is reversed in 2021, with excess mortalities being observed. Surveillance of excess mortalities can allow expedient detection of aberrant events allowing timely health system and public health responses.
| S-EPMC9807979 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8912932 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEstimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance.MethodsUsing estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region.ResultsThe Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region.ConclusionIn the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.
| S-EPMC10325574 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC11842894 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe persistent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had direct and indirect effects on mortality, making it essential to analyze excess mortality to fully understand the impact of the pandemic. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model using number of deaths from Statistics Korea and analyzed excess mortality between 2020 and 2022 according to age, sex, and dominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant period.MethodsNumber of all-cause deaths between 2010 and 2022 were obtained from the annual cause-of-death statistics provided by Statistics Korea. COVID-19 mortality data were acquired from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. A multivariate linear regression model with seasonal effect, stratified by sex and age, was used to estimate the number of deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The estimated excess mortality rate was calculated.ResultsExcess mortality was not significant between January 2020 and October 2021. However, it started to increase monthly from November 2021 and reached its highest point during the omicron-dominant period. Specifically, in March and April 2022, during the omicron BA.1/BA.2-dominant period, the estimated median values for excess mortality were the highest at 17,634 and 11,379, respectively. Both COVID-19-related deaths and excess mortality increased with age. A notable increase in excess mortality was observed in individuals aged ≥ 65 years. In the context of excess mortality per 100,000 population based on the estimated median values in March 2022, the highest numbers were found among males and females aged ≥ 85 years at 1,048 and 910, respectively.ConclusionThis study revealed that the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic coupled with its high transmissibility not only increased COVID-19-related deaths but also had a significant impact on overall mortality rates, especially in the elderly. Therefore, it is crucial to concentrate healthcare resources and services on the elderly and ensure continued access to healthcare services during pandemics. Establishing an excess mortality monitoring system in the early stages of a pandemic is necessary to understand the impact of infectious diseases on mortality and effectively evaluate pandemic response policies.
| S-EPMC11496562 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To study the long-term symptom burden among older COVID-19 survivors 2 years after hospital discharge and identify associated risk factors. The current cohort study included COVID-19 survivors aged 60 years and above, who were discharged between February 12 and April 10, 2020, from two designated hospitals in Wuhan, China. All patients were contacted via telephone and completed a standardized questionnaire assessing self-reported symptoms, the Checklist Individual Strength (CIS)-fatigue subscale, and two subscales of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Of the 1,212 patients surveyed, the median (IQR) age was 68.0 (64.0-72.0), and 586 (48.3%) were male. At the two-year follow-up, 259 patients (21.4%) still reported at least one symptom. The most frequently self-reported symptoms were fatigue, anxiety, and dyspnea. Fatigue or myalgia, which was the most common symptom cluster (11.8%; 143/1212), often co-occurred with anxiety and chest symptoms. A total of 89 patients (7.7%) had CIS-fatigue scores ≥ 27, with older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.08; 95% CI: 1.05-1.11, P < 0.001) and oxygen therapy (OR, 2.19; 95% CI: 1.06-4.50, P= 0.03) being risk factors. A total of 43 patients (3.8%) had HADS-Anxiety scores ≥ 8, and 130 patients (11.5%) had HADS-Depression scores ≥ 8. For the 59 patients (5.2%) who had HADS total scores ≥ 16, older age, serious illness during hospitalization and coexisting cerebrovascular diseases were risk factors. Cooccurring fatigue, anxiety, and chest symptoms, as well as depression, were mainly responsible for long-term symptom burden among older COVID-19 survivors 2 years after discharge.
| S-EPMC10676794 | biostudies-literature