Dataset Information

Quantifying the Population-Level Effect of the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign in Israel: A Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Estimating real-world vaccine effectiveness is challenging as a variety of population factors can impact vaccine effectiveness. We aimed to assess the population-level reduction in cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases, hospitalizations, and mortality due to the BNT162b2 mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination campaign in Israel during January-February 2021.

Methods

A susceptible-infected-recovered/removed (SIR) model and a Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA) statistical approach were used. Daily counts of individuals who tested positive and of vaccine doses administered, obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, were used to calibrate the model. The model was parameterized using values derived from a previous phase of the pandemic during which similar lockdown and other preventive measures were implemented in order to take into account the effect of these prevention measures on COVID-19 spread.

Results

Our model predicted for the total population a reduction of 648 585 SARS-CoV-2 cases (75% confidence interval [CI], 25 877-1 396 963) during the first 2 months of the vaccination campaign. The number of averted hospitalizations for moderate to severe conditions was 16 101 (75% CI, 2010-33 035), and reduction of death was estimated at 5123 (75% CI, 388-10 815) fatalities. Among children aged 0-19 years, we estimated a reduction of 163 436 (75% CI, 0-433 233) SARS-CoV-2 cases, which we consider to be an indirect effect of the vaccine.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that the rapid vaccination campaign prevented hundreds of thousands of new cases as well as thousands of hospitalizations and fatalities and has probably averted a major health care crisis.

SUBMITTER: Somekh I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9043004 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Quantifying the Population-Level Effect of the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign in Israel: A Modeling Study.

Somekh Ido I KhudaBukhsh Wasiur R WR Root Elisabeth Dowling ED Boker Lital Keinan LK Rempala Grzegorz G Simões Eric A F EAF Somekh Eli E

Open forum infectious diseases 20220218 5

<h4>Background</h4>Estimating real-world vaccine effectiveness is challenging as a variety of population factors can impact vaccine effectiveness. We aimed to assess the population-level reduction in cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases, hospitalizations, and mortality due to the BNT162b2 mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination campaign in Israel during January-February 2021.<h4>Methods</h4>A susceptible-infected-recovered/removed (SIR) model ...[more]

PMID: 35493128

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Project description:IntroductionAt the turn of 2021-2022, monthly birth rates declined in many higher-income countries. We explore how the rollout of COVID-19 vaccination was associated with this decline.MethodsUsing an interrupted time series design, we evaluate the impact of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the start of COVID-19 vaccination on seasonally adjusted monthly total fertility rates in 22 high-income countries. We study the associations between COVID-19 vaccination and fertility by additionally controlling for youth unemployment, stringency index and vaccination coverage. Fertility data come from the Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations data series under the Human Fertility Database. Indicators used as control variables originate from Eurostat and OECD databases, Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and Our World in Data.ResultsThe start of the pandemic had an immediate effect on fertility in most countries, although the size and direction of level changes considerably varied across them. The impact of COVID-19 vaccination was likewise extensive. While a relatively pronounced negative association between the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and fertility 9 months later was found only for 10 out of 22 countries, indications of a negative fertility response were detected in the vast majority of countries. For several countries, the decline was preceded by fertility increase that took place after the onset of the pandemic. Only 4 out of 22 countries had post-vaccination fertility declines that resulted in fertility being on lower level than what the pre-pandemic trend predicted. Additional control variables changed the associations only a little.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 vaccination campaign contributed to the variation in short-term fertility trends. Several countries experienced declines following the campaign, which often returned fertility closer to the pre-pandemic trend. Fertility appears to have responded in short run to vaccination, but only in few cases such that the long-term trajectory is below the pre-pandemic trend.

Dataset Information

Quantifying the Population-Level Effect of the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign in Israel: A Modeling Study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Quantifying the Population-Level Effect of the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign in Israel: A Modeling Study.

Similar Datasets

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