Determination of the trend of incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Kerman province 2014-2020 and forecasting until 2023. A time series study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is currently a health problem in several parts of Iran, particularly Kerman. This study was conducted to determine the incidence and trend of CL in Kerman during 2014-2020 and its forecast up to 2023. The effects of meteorological variables on incidence was also evaluated.

Materials and methods

4993 definite cases of CL recorded from January 2014 to December 2020 by the Vice-Chancellor for Health at Kerman University of Medical Sciences were entered. Meteorological variables were obtained from the national meteorological site. The time series SARIMA methods were used to evaluate the effects of meteorological variables on CL.

Results

Monthly rainfall at the lag 0 (β = -0.507, 95% confidence interval:-0.955,-0.058) and monthly s

SUBMITTER: Afshar PJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9049530 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature