Robustness analysis for quantitative assessment of vaccination effects and SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Italy.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In Italy, the beginning of 2021 was characterized by the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and by the availability of effective vaccines that contributed to the mitigation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and to the avoidance of hospital collapse.

Methods

We analyzed the COVID-19 propagation in Italy starting from September 2021 with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model that takes into account SARS-CoV-2 lineages, intervention measures and efficacious vaccines. The model was calibrated with the Bayesian method Conditional Robust Calibration (CRC) using COVID-19 data from September 2020 to May 2021. Here, we apply the Conditional Robustness Analysis (CRA) algorithm to the calibrated model in order to identify model parameters that most aff

SUBMITTER: Antonini C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9051820 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature