The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Countries around the world have introduced travel restrictions to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. As vaccines are gradually rolled out, attention has turned to when travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be relaxed.

Methods

Using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we develop a mathematical branching process model to assess the risk that, following the removal of NPIs, cases arriving in low prevalence settings initiate a local outbreak. Our model accounts for changes in background population immunity due to vaccination. We consider two locations with low prevalence in which the vaccine rollout has progressed quickly - specifically, the Isle of Man (a British crown dependency in the Irish Sea) and the country of Israel.

Results

We

SUBMITTER: Sachak-Patwa R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9053223 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature