Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.

ABSTRACT: The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable

SUBMITTER: Krueger T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9053266 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature