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Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.

ABSTRACT: The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.

SUBMITTER: Krueger T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9053266 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.

Krueger Tyll T Gogolewski Krzysztof K Bodych Marcin M Gambin Anna A Giordano Giulia G Cuschieri Sarah S Czypionka Thomas T Perc Matjaz M Petelos Elena E Rosińska Magdalena M Szczurek Ewa E

Communications medicine 20220303

The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the incre ...[more]

PMID: 35603303

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Project description:Background and objectivesAntibody response after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination is impaired in kidney transplant recipients. Emerging variants, such as B.1.617.2 (δ), are of particular concern because of their higher transmissibility and partial immune escape. Little is known about protection against these variants in immunocompromised patients.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsIn this prospective two-center study, antispike 1 IgG and surrogate neutralizing antibodies were measured in 173 kidney transplant recipients and 166 healthy controls with different vaccination schedules. In addition, different SARS-CoV-2 epitope antibodies from 135 vaccinated kidney transplant recipients were compared with antibodies in 25 matched healthy controls after second vaccination. In 36 kidney transplant recipients with seroconversion, neutralization against B.1.1.7 (α), B.1.351 (β), and B.1.617.2 (δ) was determined on VeroE6 cells and compared with neutralization in 25 healthy controls.ResultsKidney transplant recipients had significantly lower seroconversion rates compared with healthy controls. After the second vaccination, antispike 1, antireceptor-binding domain, and surrogate neutralizing antibodies were detectable in 30%, 27%, and 24% of kidney transplant recipients, respectively. This compares with 100%, 96%, and 100% in healthy controls, respectively (P<0.001). Neutralization against B.1.1.7 was detectable in all kidney transplant recipients with seroconversion, with a median serum dilution that reduces infection of cells by 50% of 80 (interquartile range, 80-320). In contrast, only 23 of 36 (64%) and 24 of 36 (67%) kidney transplant recipients showed neutralization against B.1.351 and B.1.617.2, respectively, with median serum dilutions that reduce infection of cells by 50% of 20 (interquartile range, 0-40) and 20 (interquartile range, 0-40), respectively. Neutralization against different variants was significantly higher in healthy controls (P<0.001), with all patients showing neutralization against all tested variants.ConclusionsSeroconverted kidney transplant recipients show impaired neutralization against emerging variants of concern after standard two-dose vaccination.Clinical trial registry name and registration numberObservational study to assess the SARS-CoV-2 specific immune response in kidney transplant recipients (COVID-19 related immune response), DRKS00024668.

Dataset Information

Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.

Publications

Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.

Similar Datasets

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