A spatial and dynamic solution for allocation of COVID-19 vaccines when supply is limited.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Since most of the global population needs to be vaccinated to reduce COVID-19 transmission and mortality, a shortage of COVID-19 vaccine supply is inevitable. We propose a spatial and dynamic vaccine allocation solution to assist in the allocation of limited vaccines to people who need them most.

Methods

We developed a weighted kernel density estimation (WKDE) model to predict daily COVID-19 symptom onset risk in 291 Tertiary Planning Units in Hong Kong from 18 January 2020 to 22 December 2020. Data of 5,409 COVID-19 onset cases were used. We then obtained spatial distributions of accumulated onset risk under three epidemic scenarios, and computed the vaccine demands to form the vaccine allocation plan. We also compared the vaccine demand under different real-time

SUBMITTER: Shi W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9053274 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature