A quantitative method to project the probability of the end of an epidemic: Application to the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, 2020.

ABSTRACT: The end-of-outbreak declaration is an important part of epidemic control, marking the relaxation or cancellation of prevention and control measures. We propose a probability model to retrospectively quantify the confidence of giving the end-of-outbreak declaration during the COVID-19 epidemic in early 2020 in Wuhan. By using the linear spline, we firstly estimates the time-varying proportion of cases who miss the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) among all reported cases. Assuming the reproduction numbers being 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0, the respective probability of the end of the COVID-19 outbreak with time after the last reported case can be iteratively computed. Consequently, the varying reproduction numbers produce slightly different increasing patterns of NPI effectiveness

SUBMITTER: Yuan B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9055421 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature