Revisiting the standard for modeling the spread of infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 epidemic brought to the forefront the value of mathematical modelling for infectious diseases as a guide to help manage a formidable challenge for human health. A standard dynamic model widely used for a spreading epidemic separates a population into compartments-each comprising individuals at a similar stage before, during, or after infection-and keeps track of the population fraction in each compartment over time, by balancing compartment loading, discharge, and accumulation rates. The standard model provides valuable insight into when an epidemic spreads or what fraction of a population will have been infected by the epidemic's end. A subtle issue, however, with that model, is that it may misrepresent the peak of the infectious fraction of a population, the time to reach th

SUBMITTER: Nikolaou M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9056532 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature